Monday, Jun 06, 2016 at 11:44
Landcoaster - It's hard to say where the diesel fits in, in the next 20 yrs, as regards cars and small commercials.
Their original benefits, of extreme simplicity (give them fuel and air and they'll go), and exceptional fuel economy - along with increased torque - were big selling points - and there used to be only a moderate premium for the diesel engine choice.
Today, diesels are just as complex as their petrol brothers, the fuel economy of the newer petrol engines is increasing - whereas diesels aren't - and the premium for the diesel option seems to have increased substantially in the last 20 yrs or so.
They still do have the torque advantage over petrol engines - and therefore are superior when it comes to towing.
It never ceases to amaze me though, how the "factory figures" on fuel consumption never relate to any real life figures. I don't know anyone who gets "factory figures" unless they're doing a steady 80kmh with no load, on a flat section of freeway, and keeping tyre pressures up.
IMO, there's virtually no difference in fuel running costs per km between petrol and diesel today - particularly when you factor in the 20% premium on diesel pricing in many areas, plus the dreadful maintenance and repair costs of CR diesels.
You can buy a complete new petrol engine for the cost of a CR diesel injection overhaul, in many cases
The diesels do have a longer life - but very few people run diesels to the end of their life. A friend has a 200 series that has done 800,000kms and it still uses very little oil and still runs like a Swiss watch.
However, very few people do more than 200,000-250,000kms in their vehicles before they trade them - and a vehicle with those kms is severely depreciated.
You rarely get a bigger percentage in resale for a secondhand diesel than a petrol, when you take into account the extra dollars you paid for it.
Personally, I think diesels in the next 20 yrs will disappear from light vehicles and will be relegated to medium-size and heavy commercials.
I reckon the smallest truck motors will become the smallest diesels around, because they will become a "premium" engine.
I believe there will be a major split in transportation methods, with electric and hybrid drives being favoured as city transport, with diesels relegated to heavy transport, and country owners, and rural use.
Even large truck manufacturers such as Volvo are playing with hybrid drive for their largest prime movers, and it's very likely that city buses will become hybrid drive as electronic components become more efficient, lighter, cheaper, and simpler to work on.
Light vehicles will follow truck and bus design. I can see future electric and hybrid drive with inbuilt fault testing, and with "slip-in" components, that make them as easy to fix as installing a new CPU in your computer.
Diesel-electric propulsion is quite efficient, as diesel engines perform best at steady RPM's, and lower RPM's. Most diesels only need to run at 1500 RPM for power generation and a steady 1500 RPM at that - so that eliminates the wasted fuel (and pollution) in spooling up and down, as they do with current drivetrains.
CVT transmissions may play a bigger part in the near future, in eliminating excessive engine RPM variations, and therefore lowering pollution to a degree - but I personally believe they will only be a temporary stage on the way to a lot more electric, or hybrid-electric drivetrains.
It's likely that legislation and environmental pressure will lead to cities passing laws that favour electric power and penalise todays style of diesels, within city boundaries.
Rural and outback areas will not be affected so much in this manner - but the populated areas are the biggest markets - and manufacturers cater and design for the biggest markets - so rural users will probably be resorting more to the smaller commercial-type vehicles for rural use, and probably utilise a hired or owned electric car, for zipping around the cities.
I believe the range problem of pure electric vehicles will soon be solved by improved efficiency and new technology - and range isn't even a problem with a hybrid.
I'm just waiting for the 1st hybrid or even pure electric 4WD. Maybe in future you won't be sitting around relaxing in a
campsite and fiddling with solar panels to recharge the caravan battery - you'll be adjusting the solar panels to recharge your 4WD for the next days stage! [;-)
Cheers, Ron.
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