Say it ain't so

Submitted: Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 10:46
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Carsales.

Toyota has been pretty quiet on its replacement for the long-serving 150-series, though rumours of a no-diesel future are now all but confirmed. When it arrives we expect twin-turbo V6 petrol and petrol-electric hybrid engines for the next-generation Prado, which means this stalwart of the off-road world might be the last of its kind.

If you want a turbo-diesel Prado, our advice is to get one soon.
Dave.
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Reply By: Member - Boobook - Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 11:11

Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 11:11
IT AINT SO!
Don't believe the journo clickbait David.

The Prado is the leading 4wd in its class. Toyota just dropped the petrol from the range because it only accounted for less than 5% of sales. Same for the 200.

Petrol Prado dropped

After looking at the disastrous petrol only Patrol sales I can't see Toyota dropping diesel from their top 2 SUV 4wd products. Especially after they dropped petrol for poor sales.

Don't confuse motoring websites with facts.

The article you quote says 'though rumours of a no-diesel future are now all but confirmed.' That posts a link to an article called "Every Toyota electrified by 2025".


But if you bother to wade through all the bullshit and rumour in the articles, Toyota only said every model will have a hybrid option by 2025. A very different thing. They have never said the Prado or any vehicle will be electric options only.

No wonder journalists get fired.
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Follow Up By: Member - David M (SA) - Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 11:22

Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 11:22
Don't have to send for you do we Boobook. Ya like the tide. :)
Dave.
As an aside you don't spend some of your time digging holes in WA do you. ?
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Follow Up By: OBJ - Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 15:59

Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 15:59
Those journos end up working for Murdoch.
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Reply By: Ron N - Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 13:35

Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 13:35
Ford is going to offer an all-electric F-150 option soon. In the land of dirt-cheap "gasoline", this is a quantam leap in faith. The video is dated Aug 2019.

I doubt whether the next model Prado will be fully petrol-electric hybrid.

Toyota move slowly, and I suspect they will still offer the current 2.8L turbo-diesel, with hybrid and full electric options, when the new model is released.

Having said that, diesel is under severe pressure - in Europe, the proportion of new diesel cars sold has dropped to 30% from 60% in some countries.

But fleet and commercial buyers are still ordering diesel, and it's expected the diesel sales percentage will level out between 2020 and 2025 - until hybrid or full electric really proves itself, and battery range can be improved for long-distance and outback touring.

Diesel car sales fall continues in Europe

Cheers, Ron.




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Follow Up By: Member - ACD 1 - Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 13:54

Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 13:54
1.25 million pounds!

Guess I won't be worried about the rating on my straps anymore!

Cheers

Anthony
VKS 3539
Work - a 40 hour interuption to my weekend!
Too many places - too little time

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Follow Up By: Ron N - Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 14:28

Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 14:28
Anthony - Yeah, it's good marketing BS, the "million pounds" pull, and the slick videoing.

The bottom line is, it doesn't take any more than a few thousand pounds gently applied, to get 1 million pounds of rolling stock moving on steel rails.

I've got a railway crowbar in my workshop. This crowbar has a large curved foot on it.

You can use it to move numbers of railcars, by prying between the wheel and the rail line. Once they start moving, they're easy to keep moving, provided the rail line has no grade - as most of the marshalling yards have.

I guess Ford are hoping no-one has seen the pictures of the Willys Jeeps being used as locomotives during WW2?? LOL

Jeep Train

Cheers, Ron.
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Follow Up By: Allan B (Sunshine Coast) - Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 14:36

Sunday, Dec 29, 2019 at 14:36
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Ron,

There is no doubt in my mind that all-electric vehicles will rewrite the book on transport in the future.
As a sparky of umpteen years, I can smell it coming.
It may not be tomorrow, but it will be the day after.
Cheers
Allan

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Follow Up By: Gronk - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 07:08

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 07:08
I can see it coming.....but for how long it will last is another thing.
I see it as a stop gap measure, to satisfy the climate change agenda, before the oil companies get their act together and come up with "true" futuristic fuels......one being hydrogen.
Some car companies have already said it will be their choice of fuel for bigger cars and trucks etc.
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Follow Up By: Allan B (Sunshine Coast) - Saturday, Jan 04, 2020 at 16:24

Saturday, Jan 04, 2020 at 16:24
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Well yes, hydrogen too...... for the larger and long haul vehicles. But I think batteries for the ordinary joe on urban journeys.
Even apart from fuel and environmental considerations, batteries and electric drives have it all over the internal combustion engines and their complex drive trains.
Of course car companies will opt for hydrogen if forced to depart from diesel and petrol. Just fit different fuel tanks and tweak the existing engines at little retooling cost.

A bit further along the timeline I can see mini nuclear reactors powering turbines and electric drives for long haul trucks and railways. Nuclear will also be the power source for high-energy industry too.

The really big problem is powering aircraft. They suck enormous amounts of energy and the ion-drive technology is barely more than a dream in practical terms. I watch with interest.



Cheers
Allan

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Follow Up By: 9900Eagle - Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 06:39

Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 06:39
Alan, this is the hydrogen powered vehicle I was talking about. No piston engine and no gearbox.

Hydrogen link
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Follow Up By: Allan B (Sunshine Coast) - Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 11:40

Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 11:40
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Thanks Eagle, interesting article.

I don't see it likely for hydrogen being introduced in Australia for long-haul.
Long-haul in Australia means the like of Adelaide to Perth with very much longer sections than what long-haul means in America and Europe. It would be necessary to have hydrogen refill stations at regular intervals with high associated costs.
Talk of fuel-cells is all very well but their development is not advancing nearly as well as other energy technology.

Hydrogen can be promoted as very attractive but in practice it has its problems. I have worked with it in industry and it is hellishly difficult stuff to manufacture and manage safely. The difficulty of preventing leaks requires exorbitant engineering and components at significant cost. And should a leak develop the consequences can be ginormous. I really do not see it going into general use as a vehicle fuel.
Cheers
Allan

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Follow Up By: Ron N - Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 11:59

Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 11:59
If you wanted to pick a fuel to replace petrol (or diesel) - the most dangerous, the mostly costly to produce, the most costly to store, the most costly to transport - and the most costly to convert into useable power - it would be hydrogen.

The oil companies have spent over 100 years installing their fossil fuels distribution system, at a fairly substantial cost.
There is no way stored hydrogen, or transported hydrogen, could be slipped into the service station network without additional massive cost.

The compression or liquifaction of hydrogen gas, absorbs large amounts of energy.
To build transport tankers for hydrogen gas would run into massive costs and involve major amounts of complex technology.
The alternative transportation method is pipelines. We do not have the population to support a massive pipeline distribution system.

A hydrogen leak would be twice as danagerous as an LPG leak. Not for nothing was hydrogen abandoned after the Zeppelin disasters.

Fuel cell technology has been with us since the late 1950's, when Allis Chalmers produced a fuel-cell powered tractor. It has developed at a snails pace since.

Meantimes, battery technology and electric power technology, continues to advance rapidly.

The simple fact remains that 10,000 times the energy we need for powering Australia falls on us in the form of solar radiation daily - and it's simple enough to convert that solar radiation into electricity, which can then be stored and used directly in electric-powered equipment and vehicles.

To use that cheap solar-powered electricity to then produce hydrogen, is merely adding substantial energy losses, and costs, to energy collection and use.

Cheers, Ron.
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Follow Up By: Allan B (Sunshine Coast) - Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 12:46

Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 12:46
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Your'e dead right Ron, and with hydrogen if your'e not right your'e dead..... right? lol

Cheers
Allan

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Follow Up By: Member - David M (SA) - Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 13:21

Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 13:21
So what size battery do we put in the Whyalla Steelworks Ron. ?
Just had a look on Google and there looks to be progress on the Port Augusta
pumped hydro. Base Load.
Dave.
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Follow Up By: 9900Eagle - Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 17:50

Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 17:50
The Nikola truck has a 1700k range loaded with a refuel time similar to diesel. Many of the trucks I drove only had 1000lt tanks with a range of around 2000k and I never had problems getting fuel. I wonder how many batteries and extra weight would be used to power a road train across the Nullarbor and how long the recharge times would be.

We will see, as time will tell what will happen in the transition to alternative fuel sources.
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Follow Up By: Ron N - Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 18:48

Sunday, Jan 05, 2020 at 18:48
9900Eagle, I believe the answer will be battery swap stations.

Pull up, grab a bite and a drink, and the station will pull out the truck battery tray, and slide in a fully-charged battery, with the swap fee, considerably less than a diesel fuel-up cost.

For commercial long-haul operators, this would make a lot of sense, particularly if the swap batteries were being charged at leisure by solar power.

The problem is trying to get agreement on a standard size battery and tray for all commercial vehicles.
Swaps work just fine for BBQ gas bottles, I see no reason why it wouldn't work for batteries.

The only costs are the battery depreciation cost over 7 or 8 years, the cost of recharging, and a small fee to do the battery swap.

We have a viable electricity-powered Ultralight aircraft already, this is just the forerunner of the future.



Cheers, Ron.
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Follow Up By: 9900Eagle - Monday, Jan 06, 2020 at 07:54

Monday, Jan 06, 2020 at 07:54
Makes sense the only problem I see once the standardisation is sorted is the amount of stops required for swaps. I use Nikola as the benchmark as they have both straight electric and hydrogen models. Tesla don't impress me very much at all, as they seem tone all over the place with grandiose schemes and more than a few failures.
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Follow Up By: Bob Y. - Qld - Monday, Jan 06, 2020 at 21:25

Monday, Jan 06, 2020 at 21:25
There’s heaps of taut liners & fridge vans on highways these days, if go electric or batteries, the trailers could be sheeted with solar cells to extend run time on batteries. Also, need regenerative charging built into the axles for further input.

My pick is nuclear. Do a Brisbane-Darwin and no need to refuel. If you did need a recharge, then you could call into Rum Jungle or Mary K for a top up.

All very interesting, but I hope to truly retired by the time one needs to choose a motive power.

Bob

Seen it all, Done it all.
Can't remember most of it.

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Reply By: Michael H9 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 08:31

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 08:31
Car makers are under pressure to drop diesel because of regulations. When I first drove around Europe in 2006, almost every car was a diesel. The diesel pumps out numbered the petrol pumps by a large majority and the Euro diesel engines were light years ahead of any Jap diesel performance wise. I was so impressed with them I came home and bought one as there were no Jap diesel passenger cars at the time. However, the smog in Europe was disgusting, I have to admit. Then a few years later I read that Europe wants to ban diesel cars. I thought at the time that it would be a massive upheaval considering almost every family seemed to be driving a diesel, but it's in progress due to health concerns. So with Europe and the US being anti diesel, it won't take long for the car makers to respond to market pressures especially given the headaches they're having trying to get DPF's working properly. Nissan was the first company to twig that our market isn't big enough to bother with concerning the Patrol. I'm surprised that Toyota bothers with the 200 series because it's pretty much unloved in the US and Europe. Sales are extremely poor overseas, I think Autralians buy more 200's than any other country in the world. If you talk about a Landcruiser in Europe you can bet they are talking about a Prado, not a proper Landcruiser, and the 70 series isn't sold in the US or Europe either.
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Follow Up By: Member - David M (SA) - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 10:04

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 10:04
"you can bet they are talking about a Prado, not a proper Landcruiser,"
Now you are really poking the bear H9. :)
Dave.
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Follow Up By: Michael H9 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 10:09

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 10:09
Mate, I prefer a Prado to both of the others, they're a nice car. The 2.8 diesel is a worry though.
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Follow Up By: Ron N - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 12:14

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 12:14
The European diesel VS petrol scene is driven by fuel taxation.

The EU is intent on cleaning up the air in Europe, so they alter the tax on fuels to drive the changes.

Diesel was dirt cheap for a long time in the EU, so people went over to diesels, due to cheap fuel and much better economy.

Now the EU Govts have altered the fuel tax regime to tax diesel, so it's dearer than petrol.
So people swap back to petrol engines - helped by gains in new petrol engine efficiencies.

But the bottom line is, petrol engines produce more CO2 than diesels. The EU want to reduce CO2, so they will now encourage more hybrids and EV's via taxation measures.

Diesels produce NO2, but the levels of NO2 are not providing the biggest headache to Govts - it's CO2 and soot particles in the air, that they are primarily intent on reducing.

So if some way can be found to reduce soot particle emissions from diesels, that is not as restrictive and costly as DPF's, then diesels still stand a chance.

The biggest factor in the whole equation is simply the progress in developing battery efficiency and durability.
There are regular small increases in battery efficiency, which are slowly tilting the whole equation towards EV's.

Ford have thrown US$500M into EV R&D, they are serious about the change to EV.

Cheers, Ron.
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Follow Up By: Member - shane r1 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 12:39

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 12:39
I just googled , but can only find recent info.
But we were recently in Ireland, and I think there were all or nearly all diesel vehicles, from previous regulations. Back when it was deemed diesel was cleaner.
So things change all the time don’t they.
How many products that are deemed safe , end up being declared carcinogenic?
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Follow Up By: Member - shane r1 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 12:42

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 12:42
I can certainly see EV’s being big in the future , but how do you charge them cleanly?
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Follow Up By: Michael H9 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 12:52

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 12:52
Ron is dead right when he says it's been controlled by taxation. The price of petrol compared to diesel through Europe was way higher back then, no wonder everyone was using diesel, and then there was the added fuel economy benefit on top.

The trouble with declaring something as carcinogenic is that it takes a long time, decades really, for the effects to materialize and even then they don't always happen. I mentioned my grandmother who smoked until she was in her 80's with no ill effects. The laugh is that she was advised to take up smoking by her doctor in the 1940's to help calm her nerves. There is a rule of thumb though, most things are initially taken as safe unless proven otherwise, it rarely happens in reverse. It's a scientist's job to observe and report, then draw conclusions from the report. Everything is statistics.
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Follow Up By: Ron N - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 13:10

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 13:10
Shane - There will be a slow but steady swing to renewable energy generation, driven by cheap solar panels and windfarms, coupled with large batteries.

The headache for power station owners/operators at present, is that so much power is being generated by solar panels on homes, it's leading to a crunch situation where the power station operators will not be able to survive.

They only survive at present by generating night-time power.

The situation demands a large investment in big batteries for power balancing, as has been done in S.A.
Pumped hydro will become another power storage feature, which system offers longer power generation capability than big batteries.
The big batteries are suitable for short-term power storage, but not for producing power for hours on end.

I believe we will see serious investment in large batteries, and more pumped hydro, for power balancing, happen fairly soon.
This is currently, the missing part of the renewables power-generation equation.

Cheers, Ron.
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Follow Up By: Member - shane r1 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 15:28

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 15:28
Totally agree Ron
But a long way to go yet, we live on Eyre peninsula of south Aus. And had a huge power outage A couple of years back, when everything went pear shaped. Without looking at google l’m pretty sure the battery that Tesla put in doesn’t power that much for that long(as they say). So as I said , a long way to go yet.
Cheers
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Follow Up By: Member - shane r1 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 15:31

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 15:31
Yep agree Michael , about the carcinogenic thing,
If someone was to stop consuming or exposing themselves to everything that is declared carcinogenic they would have to live in a bubble, I reckon!
Cheers
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Follow Up By: 9900Eagle - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 18:48

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 18:48
shane r1, you won't have to charge them if you buy a vehicle for the specification you want.

Round town battery and recharge. Long haul hydrogen fuel and make your electricity on board. Hydrogen can be transported similar to fossil fuel and it can be produced during the day using renewables.

This will take a fair while during the transition stage, and with battery recharging the whole power grid will have to be upgraded, that will also have to include the ability to put more output into the grid to replace the 34 million litres of fossil fuel Australia uses each year.




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Follow Up By: Michael H9 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 19:01

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 19:01
We're burning through millions of years of naturally stored fossil energy at an alarming rate. I can't see how we can possibly produce that amount of energy from scratch on a daily basis to maintain that scale of output in any other way. (No, nuclear in its current form is a dangerous pipe dream.)
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Follow Up By: Ron N - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 21:49

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 21:49
Michael - According to the official figures, 58 Petajoules of solar radiation falls on Australia daily - around 10,000 times our daily energy consumption.
So, we only have to harvest 0.0001% of that daily solar radiation energy to reach our energy needs.

But realistically and practically, I see a substantial mix of energy sources in our future - solar, wind, pumped hydro, natural gas, geothermal power and possibly hydrogen.
I don't see us running out of power with adequate forward planning. But we can't rely on politicians to do the planning, we have to be personally proactive.

I believe many people will go off-grid in the near future with solar power, and some form of energy storage such as batteries, or other form of energy storage. I can tell you, I will very likely be one of them.

Cheers, Ron.
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Follow Up By: Michael H9 - Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 23:22

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 at 23:22
Agreed Ron, my next house will be as off grid as possible too. I had no idea on those solar radiation numbers, that's a glimmer of hope.
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Follow Up By: 9900Eagle - Tuesday, Dec 31, 2019 at 17:14

Tuesday, Dec 31, 2019 at 17:14
Ron, Ergon in Qld are trialing off-grid power packs on a few cattle properties to see if they can get rid of the swer lines.

They consist of solar, wind and backup genset + inverters and batteries.

Solar trial
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