OT. Fuel prices LNC shares anf forum genius

Submitted: Monday, May 12, 2008 at 15:28
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A few weeks ago on one of the threads discussing fuel prices, someone suggested LNC shares as a strategy for offsetting rising prices. Who was it? Sheer genius. I hope lots of readers took the advice. Wish I had.
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Reply By: Member - Porl - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 16:48

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 16:48
I think it was me.

I bought in at 62c cause I thought they had a good product plan, I did an analysis of their accounts and their loans and their capital, and since the technology was not new I figured it would be hard to screw up, so even the emotion of gas to diesel should cause it rise.

I was going to hop out at $1.20 but holy cow it hit $2.50 today!
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Follow Up By: Member - Mfewster(SA) - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 16:58

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 16:58
Yep. I did a lot of reading on the company after your post. Thought it looked really good, but decided not to buy and just kept tracking it. That was a super good buy you made. After today's mega rise in LNC yet again, thought I should acknowledge your tip. Congratulations. It must take some of the pain out of visiting the bowser!
What really depresses me, as you say, this technology and the cobalt/LNG to diesel process have been around for a while. I don't mind the tax on fuel. What I mind is that it has been squandered on income tax breaks breaks for the wealthy rather than being used to set up the infrastructure for these kinds of technologies against the day, like now, when we clearly need them.
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Follow Up By: Member - John (Vic) - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:13

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:13
Good one, bet you didn't buy enough :-)
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Follow Up By: V64Runner - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 18:28

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 18:28
Does that constitute insider trading ??? OOPS sorry I didnt say that
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Follow Up By: Member - JohnR (Vic)&Kath - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 21:48

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 21:48
No insider trading anywhere there. Indider trading is if you actally hear anything from inside the company that is market sensitive and act on it or have someone else do it.

Mfewster, you say "that it has been squandered on income tax breaks breaks for the wealthy". Who decides who is wealthy? Obviously you made that value judgement. I guess it was people who you may have been seen to be more wealthy than you. I know there are people around who some would throw money at on the basis of 'equality of wealth' but I just know then it would be squandered as they wouldn't know how to improve their position.

Hopefully some of the ones who do invest will have " infrastructure for these kinds of technologies against the day, like now, when we clearly need them." Governments doing it haven't had a good history of it or they hand one the money making to some of their close interest groups.
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Follow Up By: Member - Porl - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 09:03

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 09:03
Well it would be insider trading if I worked for them or perhaps in the industry or even new anyone to do anything with the company, but i don't. They have, however, been quite aggressively marketing the company for some time, and there have been numerous articles on them in the press.

To be honest I thought they would be selling 100% sulphur free diesel by now but they don't seem to be so I'd like to know what is wrong, I suppose there is always the possibility they are ex-KGB agents putting up hollow structures before they take the money and run ....
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Follow Up By: Member - Mfewster(SA) - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 09:05

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 09:05
Who decides who is wealthy? Tax bracket is a good start. Some examples: The tax minimization deals for the top tax bracket via superannuation options were a good example. And your guess might just be wrong on that. Look at at the tax reductions given to the top bracket over the last decade.
Australia's spending on public schools is the lowest of all OECD countries, but support for the fee paying schools is very high by international standards. A direct subsidy to which group in the community.
Your choice of "Hopefully" to begin the last paragraph is a good one . Both parties happily sold off public utilities. Power,fuel, water, transport, roads and railways cannot be left just to market forces. One of the reasons the pollies like to sell them off is because then they don't have to take responsibility when things go wrong, or services aren't provided. That's why the bush was so anti Telstra being privatised. Government record on some of these services may not always have been good, but you can hold them responsible. When we sell them off they are only responsible to shareholders, and shareholders are only interested in the bottom profit line.
As for your claim that the less wealthy members of society would waste the money anyway, that must the smuggest rationalization I have ever heard. One of the saddest facts of Australia is that once we were a county with relatively few really rich and really poor. Most were middle class. The polarization into those with and those without is too well documented to have to argue it here, but is most clearly shown in the dramatic fall in the percentage of Australians who can own their own home.
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Follow Up By: Member - JohnR (Vic)&Kath - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 09:27

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 09:27
Porl, if you were a director or officer of the company, or a person making decisions in the area of financial application, then yes.

In an ethical situation, anyone passing internal information that is market sensitive is also then in posession of 'insider' knowledge too and should not use that information. If you were working a rig and found a new reserve, you have inside information, if you discover a new process that will revolutionise something, you also have insider knowledge.

In the company I work for, such people that have knowledge of the accounts have a trading window of one month of release of information to the ASX and shareholders. That means that the D&O (Directors and Officers) can take no advantage that other shareholders and the market can't use. I haven't bought or sold shares in the company other than the shareholder offer back in 1999, or pre 1990.
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Follow Up By: Member - JohnR (Vic)&Kath - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 09:36

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 09:36
mfewster, you are confusing facts in much of your comment. Where are the facts that confirm your statements?

Australian home ownership is amongst the highest in the world, it is the FIRST home ownership that is currently difficult as the current owners don't want to sell at a low price to the first home buyer. We did that last year to one couple. We dropped the price to sell. The other side is also the high interest rates charged that are a Reserve Bank response to slow the economy so they will in future.
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Follow Up By: Member - Mfewster(SA) - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 11:00

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 11:00
Where are my facts? Well, this wasn't an academic paper. And I notice you were a bit short on statistics as well, for the same reasons. ABS is as good a source as any, and interestingly, their research papers always seem to show a very short time frame. True, we still have the world's highest proportion of home owners, but it has fallen more or less consistently since the 1970s when it was a bit over 70%. But the real kicker is disguised. The figures rarely show the length of repayment of mortgages. In the 1970's, average mortgage length was about 25 years and loans were only made if repayments took one third or less of annual income. The length of loan repayments today has been greatly lengthened to the extent that many wont have repaid them when they retire. This is bolstering the ownership figures of the last five years. The interest rates aren't as big a factor as is generally claimed because the period of the loan is generally extended tp cut the weekly repayments. Ultimately, this sort of lending policy ends in tears.
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Follow Up By: The Landy - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 11:26

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 11:26
As far as insider trading laws go, anyone who has possession of information not generally available to all is actually in possession of inside information.....no matter who they are or what they do and you run the risk of prosecution if caught acting on the information.

I doubt that is the case here.....
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Follow Up By: Member - Porl - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 11:52

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 11:52
guys, I work in the film and tv industry and also study accounting, i have a small share portfolio (less than $50k), the only time I was every badly burnt with shares was when someone told me I should buy some because there was going to be an announcement soon (a very long time ago), so never again would I buy on an "inside" tip no matter what the laws were.

I got lucky, sometimes I don't.

But I notice someone is still buying them today.
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Follow Up By: Member - John (Vic) - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 12:27

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 12:27
$3- intra day high so far, someone likes the stock.
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Reply By: Member - Footloose - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 16:55

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 16:55
It seems that some members of this forum are a full bottle when it comes to shares, I dips me lid to em.
Interestingly many of them drive Landcruisers...they can afford to I guess :))
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Follow Up By: Member - John and Val W (ACT) - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:18

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:18
This someone drives a pretty old petrol landcruiser. But after Porl's original post about LNC I bought some, great. Saw the announcement this morning about the potential of this technology worldwide and grabbed some more just after the market opened. Even better!
Thanks for a great lead Porl.

Cheers,

Val.
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Follow Up By: Member - Footloose - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:30

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:30
Looking on the bright side, you'll be able to afford the petrol now :)
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Follow Up By: Member - Mfewster(SA) - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 19:32

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 19:32
Having started the thread that suggested thinking about shares that would benefit from the rise in fuel prices, that resulted in Porl's post, no one is kicking themselves more than me because I tracked them, but didn't buy any. Now of course I have the problem. Is it too late to buy? Will the bubble burst? (sure to if I buy some.) If I don't buy any, you can guarantee they will continue to rocket upwards.
I can't complain too much. I took my own advice on other shares that I thought would be a good idea with rising fuel prices and they have been OK, but nothing like Porl's masterstroke.
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Reply By: Member - Lionel A (WA) - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:25

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:25
Bugger!!!!

Spent all my spare money on booze and loose women.

Cheers....Lionel.
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Follow Up By: Member - Footloose - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:31

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:31
So did I ...and whats worse I did it nearly 40 years ago and still haven't recovered !
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Follow Up By: RalfR - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 18:24

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 18:24
“I spent a lot of my money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered.”

George Best.
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Reply By: The Landy - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:34

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:34
The rise in the share price appears to be related to a drilling program on one of its coal tenements which it intends to sell once it proves up the resource. It doesn't necessarily appear related to the company's core business.

None-the-less a good call on the stock itself; hope someone made money....

LNC ASX Release
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Follow Up By: The Landy - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:36

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 17:36
Might be something wrong with the link I put in, but go the ASX website and have a look.

Cheers
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Follow Up By: Member - John and Val W (ACT) - Monday, May 12, 2008 at 18:06

Monday, May 12, 2008 at 18:06
Todays rise was following a very favourable report from Price Waterhouse about the worldwide potential of this technology and having regard to the amount of low grade coal available.
Val.
J and V
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Reply By: Gone Bush (WA) - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 11:30

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 11:30
I jumped on for the ride with a modest quantity this morning.

Heck, I drive two diesel vehicles. Everyone who drives a diesel and hates paying what we pay should be supporting this company.

BTW, I've made money already but I'll keep them for a while I think.

Thanks to Posters on this thread and the Forum at Shares.com.

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Follow Up By: Gone Bush (WA) - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 12:13

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 12:13
Sorry,

that should be Sharescene.com.
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Follow Up By: Member - Mfewster(SA) - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 12:25

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 12:25
Gone bush. I made the original post in this thread because I remembered Porl mentioning these shares in a different context. In making the post I was merely acknowledging what had been a good call on Porl's part. Neither his nor my post could/should possibly be construed as either a share tip or insider trading. The original thread some weeks? months? ago had simply been considering fuel prices and alternative technologies.
PS your quote at the bottom of the page. You would also like Jonathan Swift's "He was a brave man, the man who first ate an oyster."
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Follow Up By: Gone Bush (WA) - Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 12:47

Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 12:47
Don't worry. I won't hold you responsible if the arse falls out of them.

I did all the necessary homework before jumping in.

Heck, if we acted on recommendations just from this Forum we would all be driving Nissans, putting our beer in Waecos and running on Coopers !!

Thank goodness we don't !!
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