oil crisis!

Not concerned about running out of oil but i am concerned afterr the US takes over the middle east what is going to happen when they tell China there isnt enough for them as well

PS, we have plans for a terrorist attacks and spend millions on that, what is the government doing about some sort of plan for the oil crisis and it's alternatives??

Andy,

There was'nt a little caption on the bottom of the screen saying "File Tape" was there :)))))))))))

I still remember the 'Oil crisis' of the 70s/80s. Too long ago for some of you young whippersnappers. According to the doomsayers then, we should all be pedalling bicycles or using some weird and wonderful solar/wind powered means of transport by now.

I would'nt lose any sleep over it just yet.

Missed Quantum tonight - TV got highjacked by kids watching Australia's Funniest Comedian, won by Mikey Robbins by the way.

This is a serious issue. I saw a DVD produced by a Canadian doco company that focused on the American suburban culture that has only developed due to cheap oil. The doco also talked about the end of the peak oil drop off. It's not that oil will run out like an empty fuel tank, it's more that it will be harder to get. Like squeezing a sponge, the first bit just falls out, but eventually you have to squeeze really hard. These docos are predicting we're entering squeeze phase pretty soon. Anyone that ignores these warnings is just being plain foolish. What we all do about it is another matter. The DVD is called End of Suburbia

End of Suburbia makes the connection between the inevitable increase in the price of oil, particularly in the US, and the impact this will have on the world economy. It will cause economic catastrophe as much as any reduction in fuel production capacity. Didn't we see GM is closing down plants and laying off staff just this week. Why - because they've been building the wrong cars for the future - gas guzzlers. Now the fuel price has risen just a bit, consumers are turning off the big cars and the company is going bust. So GM might lay off 30,000 employees. Why should be worry about that? Because of the ability of the US economy to influence ours. Investors will get nervous, stock markets falter, you guess the rest. It's not just about oil companies.

This 'oil crisis' is different the one in the 80's. This one is about the capacity of the earth to continue to supply our needs at the current rates, not the limited pumping capacity and political issues of the 80's. There is no combination of alternative energy sources that can match our current consumption of oil, none.

I'm feeling pretty good about my efforts to extend the fossil diesel in my cruiser by adding renewable vege oil, but I can only do that economically because I can buy oil that has been subsidised by the EU and dumped in Australia to be sold cheaper than I can buy diesel. Can't see that lasting long.

Europe will survive this much better than the US because they are already paying much higher prices for fuel than the US and we do and are much more accustomed and further down the track for the changes that need to made in the next decade, or less.

One positive I got from End of Suburbia was the promotion of higher density housing as a solution, designing communities that encourage walking and reduce reliance on cars, things we can do successfully in Aust. It also said the 80's crisis dropped demand to such an extent it delayed the end of 'peak oil' for a decade or so.

Happy to be flamed, just be informed before you hit send.

Tim

The oil crisis of the 70’s & 80’s had a very different starting point – the oil major producing cartel at the time was OPEC and it wanted higher prices for oil. OPEC at the time produced about 80% of the worlds’ oil. This strategy eventually backfired on them. The Western World went out and found oil in other places outside of OPEC control. It was successful and now OPEC controls only 45% of the worlds oil supply. BUT- the Western world found only comparatively small fields. Saudi Arabia alone has been producing about 8 to 9 million barrels of oil a day for the last 50 years. The world uses about 80 million barrels a day. Those fields that were found outside of The Middle East were not large. The North Sea lasted 20 years, Bass Strait lasted 30 years, North West Shelf is mostly gas and very little oil, Timor Sea has a 20 year life span, Gulf of Mexico is about 15 years, Indonesia is now a net importer of oil after being a net oil exporter up to the year 2000 etc, etc, The biggest field in the world is in Saudi Arabia, it has produced oil for the last 100 years – BUT last year for the first time some of these Saudi wells started to draw up a high percentage of water. This is the first sign of a dying oilfield. It’s starting.

Even BP and Shell have downgraded their "known reserves" estimates. Both companys’ directors have stated publicly that the world has to reduce its reliance on oil – they can’t deliver.

Plus, we’ve had oil too cheap for too long. Look at it this way – how much is a litre of Coke and how hard is it to mix syrup and water?How much is a litre of milk? Now,how much is a litre of petrol and how hard is is it explore for it, drill it, produce it, refine it etc.

The party’s over boys ‘n girls.

I’ve just retired from 35 years in the oil industry – producing it and refining it. Enjoy our 4bys while we can. Soon you’ll have an armour plated fuel tank and bloody great lock on it ‘cos if you have a full tank it’ll be worth about $1500.00!!

Take care,

Bilbo

PS – if you wanna know the inside story on the oil industry, read a non-fiction book called “The Prize” written by David ??? (can’t remember his last name). It’ll scare the schitt out of yer.

Just a thought ???
Who knows when "THE FUEL" is going to run out ????
1yr-50yr the Oil Company's arn't saying, TV currant affairs "ARE" predicting DOOM
can't imagine why ??? Ratings maybe ????
The reality is I am still searching for that piece of paper that the "GOVERNMENT"
sent me telling me that I will "NEVER RUN OUT OF FUEL" !!!!
I know it is there somewhere !!!
Just maybe us "Humans" are so dependant on "FUEL" that we think it is our "GOD GIVEN RIGHT" that all we have do is turn up at the local servo and "WHALLAA"
Just maybe, We will run out of fuel before our 4x4 days are over ???
But what are "YOU" and "ME" going to do about it ???
Keep getting our shopper dockets and buying as much as we can get for "FREE" !!!
Is anything really free in this world today !!!
The reality is whether we like it or not, jump up down, yell and scream, if there ain't no Oil there ain't no Oil ????
Everything "ENDS" one day, Our clothes, White goods, Cars,Our working life,ect,ect,ect
And ultimately so do we !!!!!
So just maybe "OIL" will too !!!!
Who am I to say what is what, just get out there and 4x4 to your hearts content don't wait till tomorrow because just maybe you might not be around to enjoy it ???
And Who's to say that we will still have enough "OIL" or can "AFFORD" it ???
See You out there "DOO'N IT"
Barry

There are some answers , but we need a government with vision instead of the present short term thinkers.
1. A national energy strategy. Stop cutting taxes and invest in infrastucture, Encourage everyone to change to gas. We have plenty of it, but need a wider distribution network and assistance to gas conversions. We DON'T need long term contracts to sell massive quantities of the stuff off at what will be preopsterously bargain prices in a few years.
2. We need biodiesel plants on a big scale and lots of agriculture growing things like canola to feed them (instead of the ludicrously water expensive crops like cotton and rice).
We don't need an alternative energy plan based on sugar cane (which is what Johhny is doing) just because it keeps the Qld farmers happy. This approach just tops up petrol instead of repacing it.
3. Survival tip. Yes it will get dearer, but insure yourself by investing $ in companies like Australian Renewable fuels because youwill probably make big $$

Dont blame me . I vote labor .

All this talk reminds me of the original Mad Max movie.

Hope we don't go down that track!

Cheers

Mark

There are alternatives being developed, Hybrids and hydrogen to name a couple.

I don't really think that 'big oil' is going to let a small thing like lack of crude to get in the way of profits :-~

Give it a few years and you'll be filling up from the garden tap :-)

Over the last few decades the big oil companies have been buying out ideas on alternative fuel sources and shelving them. When the oil runs out, these same companies will just be the best equiped to deal with th the crisis. So , don't sell your oil shares yet.

R.

Guys this is not just about fuel costs. It's about the impact on world economies.

Hydrogen is very nice. How do you produce it? With electricity. Where does the electricity come from? From fossil fuel. It isn't sustainable.

If all countries changed to nuclear energy, the world supplies of uranium would run out in ten years. Yep, Australia has a high proportion of the worlds uranium, but it is not a long term power solution - regardless of any end product issues.

Frankly the quicker fuel prices rise the longer the joyride will last by reducing demand just a tad.

AND, as mfewster says above, we need government with eyes wide open to long term sustainable planning. There are a few Senators left that have been working for 30 years with these aims, but they're struggling to keep going cos no one wants to listen.

Tim

we must be going to run out soon? Stuart Petroleumis contemplating spending $$$ on a diesel refinery in the cooper basin.....

Errr, like most things in the media - there will be no dramatic crisis. Oil will not run out. But what will happen is oil will become harder to find and more expensive to extract.

Did you know in the Perth Basin (or so I am told), there is oil? - not much, diluted with water I guess, but there is oil. NSW also has several sizeable shale oil deposits. While I am not suggesting these sources will (or should) ever be mined, it is just that sources like these will start to become economic as the price of oil goes up. Likewise many older 'worked' oil fields still have substantial amounts of oil left - it is just that at the moment it is not economic to extract the remaining oil.

So don't be scared of a hard oil crisis - there won't be one because we have run out of oil!! The price of oil will just keep going up at a steady pace (political instability is another issue all together).

On Bio diesel - there was an article in New Scientist the other day where some experts were suggesting that the shift to Ethanol (and I guess Bio diesel) is one of the further threats to clearing of rainforest in the Amazon (and elsewhere) to plant ethanol bearing crops. Ethanol, and biodiesel while theoretically more renewable than fossil fuels, are far from being environmentally benign or sustainable in the ecological/social sense.

One day we will realise that we will not find the solution looking only at alternative fuels, but will have to actually start reducing our consumption of resources - full stop, no matter where the resources come from (and yes that means we may have to drive our cars less.....)

One day....

Bollocks to the lot of it !! There is more oil in the Athbaska tar lakes in Canada then there is in the Saudi oil fields! It just costs more to get it out. There are huge oil resevoirs in the deep ocean - but - it costs more to get it out. There are many ways of enhancing or manufactureing synthetic fuels. The worlds coal fields are an incredible size - but - it costs more to convert coal oils to the liquide fuels we use every day. The oil companies will switch over to other methods of making our liquide fuels as soon as they see a profit in it. The technology exists today. NZ was turning natural gas into petrol up to a few years ago but its cheaper to get petrol from cheap (?) oil. Its all to do with PROFFIT !!!!! Read my lips - WE ARE NOT ABOUT TO RUN OUT OF OIL OR PETROL.

G'day,

The peak oil theory has been about a while. Have a look at,

Peak Oil

Makes for interesting reading.

Kind regards

Yep, have been following this subject for some time. It's certainly a concern and in reality the reason you don't see anything major in the pipe line for a replacement is that there is nothing. Crude is used for everything in our lives, energy for transport, producing food, etc, plastics, clothing, all synthetics, medicines, additives in food, building materials, etc, etc. The least of our dramas will be getting fuel for transport. It's a relatively simple process to work out roughly how much oil is left and is economically viable to retrieve plus or minus a number of years. Knowing how much is being used each year gives you how long it will last and if the Peak isn't here it's damn close. From there it's all down hill, sure there will be opposing views but the tell tale signs are there now, it's really an argument about is the Peak now or in a couple of years time and will it run out in a couple of decades or sooner. We shouldn't be wearing rose coloured glasses, there is nothing out there, hidden in vaults or not that will replace what crude oil does and maintain our existing quality of life. My generation will certainly see the start of major dramas and severe changes to life styles. Hate to be around when my now 10 year old nephews get to my age.

After viewing the program last night, my wife (a woman of few words - seriously) stated "well that's OK, we will just go back to 'localisation' instead of 'globalisation'". I loke the way she is thinking, se reckons we are wasting all this fuel on sending our stuff all over the place using a variety of transport means, when we should look after it all locally.

BTW, is is called Catalyst, not Quantum.

All you buggers didn't pick up on it, what are you doing?

THE END OF THE WORLD IS NIGH!!
People have predicted the end of the world since it started and this is no different what people dont ralize is NECCESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF ALL INVENTIONS Why arnt we using alternative fuels?? itsd because they ARNT ECONOMICALLY VIABLE when they are they will be used developed and refined why? BECAUSE THERE WILL BE BIG MONEY IN IT ---- LIKE OIL. The only downside is before there is a transition places like the Antarctic will be used for oil exploration/production. And forget biofuel fact is a farm cant produce enough biofuel to produce it = unsustainable. Also land clearing for further production of biofuel would be an ecological disaster................................. Although how about eucalyptus oil - plenty of gum trees around here

We will all burn from radiation before we run out of oil......or drown.

"Into the bomb shelter dear......."

Of course they want us to believe that we are running out of oil, this gives them the excuse to keep the price high.............LPG will be the way to go when oil runs out.............Then the gas producer liked they used on cars during the 2nd world war, you couldent buy petrol then, it was rationed and they only allowed each person about 2 gallons a month if you had a good enough reason to own a vehicle.

From what I have read oil production is meant to peak around 2015 and from there on out supply will run out very fast, the predictions range from 2020 to 2050 before we are dry, but ether way we are in Big trouble.

Yes there are most likely still reserves available it’s just a matter of getting the drilling permit’s to drill.

(I think I have posted this before) But one of the biggest reserves believed to be left only has enough oil in it to fully supply the U.S for 5 years!! I think it was.

As for oil running out in 3 years I find that hard to believe, in 20-years having a major oil crises and possibly running out, Now that I can believe.

A good book to read is "the end of the oil age". It is written by Matt Savinor an ex energy advisor to the US Govt. Very concerning indeed.

Basically we run our lives on oil,we live in excess and abuse the natural resouse that is oil. We now have a global population of 6.2Billion people, we had 500 million prior to the use of oil in combustion engines, this growth is on the back of cheap oil, we can go where we want, when we want, heat,cool our homes on oil (Electicity), do what we want when we want, we live in a throwaway society and dispose of an enormous amount of plastic (Made of oil) in our day to day life. These habits have to stop quickly or the shortage of oil will do this for us.
My view is that at my age -33, i might get thru life with some difficulty, shotage of oil leading to high unemployment,high crime,depressed ecomomy,increase in wars etc, i don't hold much hope for the next generation unfortunately.

Criticise my views if you wish, just think 80million barells of oil a day, every day, it can't last forever.

Regards

Greg

Tim,

Exactly, i'm not saying it will run out, when it gets low it will become too expensive to extract. The oil companies talk of a return on investment ratio where x amount of barrells of oil is used to extract y amount of barrells of oil.

In the early days of oil recovery the ratio was approx 30:1. I.E. burn 1 barrell, extract 30. Not bad result. Some parts of the USA in the 50's and 60's were 100:1.
Internationally the ratio is now approx 5:1 now. Naturally when the ratio is 1:1 there is no point in extracting oil.

There will be some oil left, it will just be impractical to extract.

Regards

Greg

Interesting?

Last week listening to ABC Radio it was revealed that a small Aussie independent oil exploration company has discovered new oil reserves in the existing Moomba Oil Field

Not so long ago Russia declared it had enough oil for 1000 years.

Who do we believe?

Plod along......mankind will come up with alternatives.

Too many scare mongerers around beating their breasts and preaching doomsday and being believed at that

In 20 years time, on some cold rainy night, young children will wake to the sound of an old big block V8 winding out, roaring like some huge prehistoric beast, as the tailend fishtails, struggling for grip on the wet tarmac.... They will either wet themselves in fear or wonder what the hell they missed out on...

Question// Howmuch longer would the world fuel supplys last if every car on the road used a litre less fuel for every 100klms travelled??????????????. Interesting theory but no theory it is real it happens.All will be revealed in time.

BILLS