Thursday, Jan 26, 2006 at 09:46
New business for you there Terry - get ya truck out and start picking up that stinking old chip oil and refining it! You could apparently make a killing.
Like many waste technologies, despite the latent value of the asset, finding folks to recycle it - clean it and in this case refine it - is hard. You've got to be prepared to get very dirty and to have large extended liabilities in terms of retrieval, residual disposal etc. You've got to reach a network of fish and chip shops and restaurants and convince them to use your disposal method. Convince them that you should pick it up once a month rather than the once a week their current disposal guy does it (say). Take their phone calls, answer their questions, pick it up when they are there to provide access ... great simple business (yuk!). These are just some of the issues that a new producer of biodiesel considers when considering the stock he will use.
Biodiesel consumption in
Australia today is perhaps a few million litres per annum at best - compare this to diesel consumption which is more than 10,000m litres per annum. Sure, folks are building plants that by 2007 might produce 600 or 700m litres per annum, but most of that is targeted at European markets - read the prospectuses of the companies!
Biodiesel production requires building new plants (which is happening), but those plants have not been paid off many years ago - someone has forked out real capital to build them, and want their payback as quickly as possible. Fossil fuel refining, storage and distribution networks are so old that they have been paid off many years ago, and although expensive to run as well, those costs are being amortised across 10,000x the volumes.
There are other uses for oilseeds, palm oil and the land it's grown on. Biodiesel production requires large amounts. The costs are actually pretty high comparitively. If I want to buy 200l quantity of canola oil I'll have to pay $1 per litre as a consumer - and it still needs processing for Biodiesel.
Sure - if I want to buy 200,000 litres I can get a lower price, but it's still in the same territory as fossil fuels are sold for.
There are business risks of course. Just the fuel filter clogging up is one (small) example. There is a lot of misleading information, including on forums like this, about bad biodiesel, biodiesel does this, does that etc. Think how much misinformation is out in the rest of the community - I get mechanics (including on last week in
Yulara) asking stoopid questions about Biodiesel and with all sorts of mis-information - if they are misinformed, how about the rest of the market. What potential is there that this can bite a supplier?
The price you pay here at the end of the supply chain, is what is it because of market conditions - how much can they get, how much can they sell it for, how much can they sell, how much is some competitor further down (or is it up) the supply chain (like the Europeans who are buying Australian Biodiesel) is willing to pay.
Everything seems obvious to you and you make lots of statements about what should be, but because you say it should be doesn't mean it is so.
After some exploration and analysis I can see it is reasonable why the prices are where they are, and that until the volumes get much higher, they are not likely to change in a hurry.
I don't see any massive profiteering - most of the producers are public companies and you would see their "massive profits". Name ONE that is making such massive profits - or even projecting it.
If something doesn't make sense to you, spend a bit more time looking at the facts rather than collecting yet more supposition and building more strawmen arguments.
I'm not defending anyone - reread my original post.
1. Tax is the same. (yes - we agree)
2. Post production cost of transport is the same (actually probably Biodiesel is higher because of lower volumes but let's not argue this too much)
3. Volumes are much much less (of the order of 10,000x less in
Australia and 1,000,000x less globally)
No apologia - just facts that make the difference.
Ciao for now
Andrew.
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