An interesting question
Submitted: Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:15
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Member - Matt M (ACT)
I enjoyed the discussion on skinny vs fat tyres in sand so much, I thought that I would pose another puzzle that I cam across recently. Not related to 4wding in any way but the answer is interesting.
You are a contestant on a games show and the host shows you three doors and asks you to choose one. Behind one of the doors is a million dollars, the other two have nothing.
Let's say you choose door number 1, the host then opens another door (call it door 2) to reveal that there is nothing behind it. He then asks if you want stay with your original choice (door 1) or change to door 3.
Do you:
a) Stay with your original choice (door 1)
b) Change to door 3, or
c) It doesn't matter which you choose.
Matt.
Reply By: Member - Roachie (SA) - Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:28
Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:28
c)
Kay sara sara, whatever will be will be. If the money ain't behind the door I picked in the 1st place then I guess I don't get to buy the 6.5L Chev donk to stick in the Patrol.........damn!!!!!!!!!
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Reply By: dinodog- Central Coast NSW - Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:38
Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:38
It's a bit like trying to work out the odds of winning lotto or the lottery.
Some say it's millions to one.
I say it's fifty-fifty.
You win it or you don't!
dinodog
AnswerID:
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Follow Up By: dinodog- Central Coast NSW - Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:44
Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:44
Oh and just on the fat or skinny tyres debate, ever tried to push a loaded wheel barrow with a skinny wheel through soft sand or gravel and then did the same with a barrow fitted with a pumpup tyre?
dinodog
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Follow Up By: Crackles - Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:59
Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 21:59
You ning nong.......you're comparing a solid skinny wheel with a pump up tyre? Thats like comparing a car tyre pumped up to 500psi against one at only 30. Of coarse it will be easier ya :O) You really don't get it do you???????
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Follow Up By: dinodog- Central Coast NSW - Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 22:15
Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 22:15
jeez crackles i'm just getting the hang of winding you blokes up and whats a :O in real english?
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Follow Up By: Member - Phil G (SA) - Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 22:36
Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 22:36
Good point dino - same problem with wheelchairs in the sand :-))
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Follow Up By: The Explorer - Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 22:45
Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 22:45
For this exact reason I run dual 33x12.5 BFG Mud Terrian tyres on my wheelbarrow – never been bogged once. Guy next door runs those p**fy
Dunlop Road Grippers (205R16LT)…maybe 2 or 3 times a week I have to snatch him out of his front yard. Hang on! I think I can hear him calling on the UHF….here we go again..
Cheers
Greg
| I sent one final shout after him to stick to the track, to which he replied “All right,” That was the last ever seen of Gibson - E Giles 23 April 1874 Lifetime Member
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Follow Up By: gramps - Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 00:46
Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 00:46
Greg,
You mean those "you beaut, great in the sand" Road Grippers, don't you :))))
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Follow Up By: The Explorer - Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 00:50
Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 00:50
Yes ..sorry typo
Cheers
Greg
| I sent one final shout after him to stick to the track, to which he replied “All right,” That was the last ever seen of Gibson - E Giles 23 April 1874 Lifetime Member
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Follow Up By: Crackles - Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 12:27
Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 12:27
dinodog- I called you a clown :O) as that’s one of the silliest examples in the skinny Vs fat debate I've heard. I assumed then you may have just been fishing so I rebaited the hook & seems I've caught the fisherman.
;-) (That’s a wink)
Cheers Craig :-)) (That's laughing you can hear)
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Reply By: crfan - Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 22:36
Thursday, Feb 02, 2006 at 22:36
Hi Matt they did this on that show called numbers when you picked youre first door you had a 1 in 3 chance of getting it right so a higher chance of getting it wrong now you are down to 2 doors if you change your choise now you have a higher chance of getting it right ,But i still think it's 50/50.
Have you ever heard of the 50/50 90/10 rule ?
if you have a 50/50 chance on something there is a 90 percent chance you will get it wrong.
Or as a Mate says if I didn't have Badluck I would have no luck at all...........
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Reply By: The Explorer - Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 00:57
Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 00:57
Depends on how wide the doors are - I'll take the skinniest one!
Cheers
Greg
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Reply By: spliney - Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 07:59
Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 07:59
Well Matt... how's this for an answer to the puzzle...??
1. When I choose door 1, there is a 33% chance I'm right.
2. It follows that there's a 66% chance that it's one of the other two doors.
3. When the host rules out door 2, that would transfer that whole 66% chance to door 3.
I'd change to door 3.
Spliney
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Follow Up By: Member - Matt M (ACT) - Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 13:53
Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 13:53
Spot on, you actually double your chances by changing doors. Still, I like crfan's 50/50/90 rule. Always seems to apply to me.
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Reply By: ev700 - Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 09:57
Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 09:57
C)
You're picking from two doors and each has an equal chance.
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Follow Up By: Crackles - Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 12:50
Friday, Feb 03, 2006 at 12:50
You're right. It's a 50/50 chance but if you swapped now you'll look a bigger fool as you already had the million $ in you hand then changed your mind :-))
Craig......
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