One for the statisticians
Submitted: Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 17:42
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Ron173
G'Day all,
I got a question, when buying tickets in meat raffle at local club, me and the
cook, always wonder if you have a better chance getting 2 lots of 10 say, or 1 lot of 20?
Two ways of looking at it, the 2 lots give you a wider chance of different numbers, but the 1 lot gives you more chance of hitting that one block of numbers?
just curious if anyone has any theories
have a good weekend
Ron
Reply By: GaryInOz (Vic) - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:05
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:05
Both ways are equal statistically. You still have 20 in xxxx??? chances of winning. The actual numbers printed on the tickets are stsistically insignificant. To explain, if I was to ask you to pick a number between 1 and 10, there is a one in ten chance that the number you chose was correct, whatever the number is. It could have been three, six, or one, it wouldn't change the chances.
As an intersting aside, there is exactly the same chance of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, with supps of 7, and 8 being drawn in the Lotto as there are for any other random choice of numbers. Statistically it WILL happen, eventually.
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Follow Up By: GaryInOz (Vic) - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:25
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:25
Have a look at how many tickets are produced and the cost of the tickets, then look at who benefits and to what amount of the procedes they recieve. At that point decide if you want to pay the raffle organisers premium, or donate directly an amount to the club.
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Follow Up By: Member - Captain (WA) - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 21:13
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 21:13
Hi GaryInOz,
Actually that's not quite true! When you draw a sequence, there is only 2 numbers out of 46 to complete the next straight sequence compared to the remaining 43 numbers. For example, out of 46 lotto balls, if #3 was drawn first, only #2 or #4 could continue the sequence (2 in 45 chance) compared to 42 in 45 chance of any other number to break the sequence. Actually the odds are slightly different to that as more numbers are drawn, but you get the idea.
However, the odds of a sequence is exactly the same as any other non-ordered set of 6 numbers. Its just that we can easily recognise a sequence compared to seemingly random numbers and there is significantly more random combinations compared to straight sequences.
Cheers
Captain
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Follow Up By: GaryInOz (Vic) - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 21:54
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 21:54
With lotto the order of removal of the balls shouldn't matter, but in our case the supplemantaries cloud the issue a bit. To have the 12345678 come out could be 1-6 (main draw) in any order, and 7-8 (supplemantaries) in any order.
Nothing like a bit of mental mathematical gymnastics on a Friday night....LOL
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Follow Up By: GaryInOz (Vic) - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 21:55
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 21:55
All this deep thought from a "chook raffle" ROTFLMAO
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Reply By: GU - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:17
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:17
Have no idea about the answer to your question, but every time I here or see some mention of a club raffle I immediately go back some 35 years to when I was dating a girl whose family was heavily involved in their local football side.
The football club was having a raffle, the first prize being a brand new (then) Holden Kingswood
sedan. The tickets were something like $30 each and were limited in sales to around the 300 mark.
When the draw for the raffle took place the particular car was present under wraps
all
bright and shiny, registered etc. and ready to be driven away by the lucky winner.
I will always remember that I had ticket number 434 but unfortunatley the winning number was 435. As I bought my ticket through the girl friend's family I thought hey one of you guys have probably got ticket 435.
Sure enough the girlfriend's father Les had the winning ticket.
He produces the ticket, congratulations all round and the promoters then remove the wraps from the new vehicle.
It was registered number LSF-435.
LSF was the girlfriend's father's initials, and the 435 the winning ticket number.
The vehicle was registered some 7 days prior to the raffle draw and I still can't believe what were the chances of that number plate coming up.
Great story but sorry I can't help with your query.
Wayne.
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Follow Up By: Ron173 - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:36
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:36
wow that sounds very suss indeed
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Reply By: The Explorer - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:27
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:27
Yes the ink on the tickets printed into the shape of a number plays no bearing on whether they will be picked out or in what order - its just a means for identifying one ticket from another - you could use any pattern of ink you like - as long as each ticket was unique. The use of numbers for identification makes (some) people think that tickets have some sort of order/relationship - but there is none - they are all just unrelated bits of paper.
Cheers
Greg
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Reply By: Ron173 - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:39
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 18:39
Thanks for replies, didnt think there was any difference but you never know on here, someone may have had a theory.
Its actually quite a good raffle, we on average tend to win a tray or joint every other week, sometimes twice, its all about the fun of partaking.
Cheers
Ron
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Reply By: Alloy c/t - Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 19:53
Friday, Aug 25, 2006 at 19:53
Local pub / club weekly raffles are truly a random for who wins , 100 tickets sold, if you buy 20 you have 1 in 5 chance of being the winner ,, now as an ex Publican I can tell you that almost any and all other "raffles" at your local being of a "promo" be it buy this and get a ticket in this , are nearly always rigged ,,be it for a bbq worth $150 or a car worth $20,000 ,,,do you realy think that I or anyone else selling booze will "give" away anything to someone who we don't know from a bar of soap , not in this life time !!
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