How much petrol is there left?

It is not a case of how much is left but at what point will it's extraction be too expensive to be used as a fuel in cars.

There is some story around that the Oil Shale deposits in Aus and Tar sands in Canada and other places will become economical to extract at some stage and 400 years supply is available in these deposits, or so the story goes??

Anyhow the conspiracy theorists will say that all these "Water into Fuel" technologies that have been suppressed by the oil companies will also surface so "she'll be right mate"

It will never become such and issue in our lifetime Ron , for good fundamental reasons.

However manipulation and refinery capacity are bigger issues and I'm sure price trend will be up.

The fundamental reason why it will be kept in check is because 85% ethanol can run in almost all petrol cars made this century with some small mods , and this increasingly available alternate fuel and Gas availability will keep price from not reaching stupids heights in Aust.

Robin Miller

Some interesting replies and points.

Hope we dont go ethanol, my boat wont run on ethanol, and as far as I am aware cannot be modded to do so.

Back in 1991, we were told there was less than 20 years supply left.

Back in the early 70s we were told there was about 10 years left, although memory might be letting me down on that one.

So it looks like every 15-20 years the supply doubles even though the user base is increasing exponentially.

My view is that every drop of oil that can be extracted and sold at a profit will be extracted and used. It's not only petrol that relies on the oil supply, but also various plastics and other by-products that we can't live without these days. Even if Ethanol/hydrogen/solar/whatever replaces petrol for cars, the pumping of oil will continue until there is not a drop left.

There are more reserves in the Athbasca tar sands in Canada alone then there is at present in Saudi Arabia. There are heaps of known oil deposits all around the world that are considered to be 'uneconomic' at present but that's only because big business wants a quick return for little expense. Note the following term "BRIC'. It stands for the emerging countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China. These economies are huge and booming, they are consuming incredible amounts of fuel and the infrastructure behind the worlds oil supply is having difficulty in keeping up. Petrol 'extenders' such as ethanol (about 10%) are already available in most western countries.

Opinions amongst geological experts vary but the general consensus seems to be that the world is either at, or very close to "peak oil", that is, the point at which we are consuming more oil than we are producing/extracting. Once this point is reached and the realization sets in, two things will start to happen very quickly.
1. The price of oil will climb steeply.
2. The risk of wars being fought over dwindling reserves will increase. Some might say that the US presence in Iraq illustrates this nicely.

Common sense dictates that the world cannot go on using increasing amounts of a finite fuel source. It is less than 100 years since the start of modern oil usage and the global economy is wholly dependent upon this extremely efficient fuel. Oil and it's byproducts are an integral part of our lives, much more than people realize. Then there is the rapid industrialisation of countries such as India and China who are consuming vast amounts of the precious black stuff just at the time when production is plateauing!! Double whammy!!

At some stage soon, we'll have to develop viable alternatives (ethanol, nuclear, wind, solar etc... are just bit players in this scene) and manage a transition from an oil based economy to a economy based on some alternative/s, or face the consequences.

It's going to be an interesting ride .....

Funny nobody's even mentioned Liquid Hydrogen yet , its a fantastic alternative but too expensive ??? so was the first model T belive me if they had to do it they would , fact is its not too bad for them to market it yet, but if the oil went they WOULD,
just my 2 bob's,
Dave

I think the alternative fuel is going to be used, whatever that may be.

However at this point in time, I think it wont quite be the type of fuel that makes it big, but more so the person or organisation which produces an easily adaptable modification to the ICE (internal combustion engine) so that it can run on an alternative fuel.

Being totally hypothetical of course.... imagine we fill our tank with water, and throw in a tablet or two which dissolve and create a useable octane rating.
(I know its ridiculous, I'm only trying to illustrate a point)
The company who makes/invents the tablets could charge $100 a tab or whatever they like.

This may not be in the form of a tablet, it could be some sort of catalyser or another bolt on type of modification, but point is if the ICE can continue it will be a HUGE success and of great benefit to the world in general.

Ron

PS Robin...I'm working on the tabs!!!

With all these worries about the dwindling fuel oil reserve I guess its about time the government bit the bullet and banned the sale and use of those terrible gas guzzling four wheel drive vehicles; especially the one with the fat wheel, lots of driving lights, numerous antennas protuding all over and giant heavy roo;bull;wombat bars which makes them use even more of our precious reserves of oil. So do the right thing for the future of your children boys and rush out tomorrow or sooner and trade the ugly great beast (no not your wife) on a pryus Har har har!!!

Sometimes... I wish it would run out - and then we would be forced to stop worrying about all the trinkets, trappings and urbanities of money obsessed and possession centred Western society and get back to the really important issues of family, friends, community and support of others without worrying about wide screen TVs or who owns the latest zap-pow-gadget.

Mike Harding

There are still plenty of known oil resources around the world; however they remain a resource as distinct from a reserve simply because the cost of extraction at the current price is not economical. Upward movements in the price of oil will change the business case, but the oil supply will come at a greater cost.

Someone touched on refining capacity and this is an important part of the price equation when looking at refined products. There is a global shortfall in refining capacity and whilst time will address the problem it is a slow process to build and bring on additional capacity, not too mention the capital cost of doing so. Someone has to pay. Consequently, refining margins will remain high and these will impact directly into the price at the bowsers. Buying shares in oil companies that produce refined products might be the best way of offsetting this cost!

Plenty is made about the virtues of the alternative fuel sources, especially ethanol. However, often overlooked is the hidden cost that will come from going down this path. We have already seen price spikes in sugar at times when the oil price has been high. Farmers in the US are diverting resources away from traditional food crops towards the production of a lower grade corn crop that can be used in ethanol production. In fact, many soft drink manufacturers are now moving back towards using cane sugar in the production of soft drinks due to the increased cost of using modified corn sugar which has traditionally been cheaper then cane sugar.

This development will hit the hit pocket at the supermarket in time; the reality is that the cost of energy is going to become more expensive as the demand for it increases. Heaven forbid, imagine it, the price of your standard box of Skippy corn-flakes goes through the roof because the price of oil increased yesterday! Is nothing sacred?

China’s demand for cars and the energy to drive them is going to increase in large multiples as its population becomes more affluent and earns the disposable income to pay for them.

Doom and gloom, maybe, but let’s face it the world energy juggernaut is a monster that cannot be stopped……….I guess the cost of that trip across the Simpson or down the CSR; the annual pilgrimage to Cape York is going to become more expensive – best we all get out and see Australia while it is affordable!

Phew…that was a bit of a rant!

Good luck, I’m off to the supermarket to stock up on my Skippy corn-flakes…

Good thread.

However more of a problem than oil etc running out is the damage due to burning/combusting these fuels. Most scientist agree that way before we run out of oil, coal etc the earth and so all of us will suffer the effects from wasting our energy reserves at such a rate.

OK that is enough engineering/scientific stuff. So let me me see if understand all the issues.

1) We won't run out of fuel in my lifetime.
2) Might cost a little more
3) Might not be petrol as I know it now
4) Mine and all the other offspring will have to do something for themselves and their kids
5) If point 4 doesn't exist - no problem
6) If point 4 does exist it will be about time they did something and I will not be around to bail them out again

Can't see the problem so long as keep the money supply happening.

Kind regards

2050