Monday, Mar 17, 2008 at 17:33
MIke,
Anyone can do a search on the internet on the topic of peak oil and there is plenty of info available on what the so called experts are suggesting might happen to oil prices.
here's one quote from IEA (International Energy Agency) - an independent body of oil analysts based in France:
Here's what the IEA said:
"An abrupt escalation of oil prices after 2015 as a result of a global supply crisis cannot be ruled out.
. . . it is very uncertain whether new oil production in the period to 2015 will be enough to compensate for the natural falloff in output from existing oil fields and keep pace with the projected increase in demand.
The consequences of unfettered growth in world energy demand are alarming."
You can find volumes of similar comments to that one. These are not my words but the words of the so called experts in the field.
I have never said there would be a problem last year - I don't know where that comment came from. My words 2011 to 2015 are from various sources - IEA believes the crisis will come 2015 - others say as early as 2011. But these dates are all estimates anyway. But the common fact in all these reports is that the world will face oil prices rising at a faster rate than ever before once this "peak oil" issue occurs.
And yes Governments are developing strategies to deal with such developments. I have seen first hand refernces to reports prepared for US Government and more recently Queensland Government. I agree though with your qualification posted - Governments don't have a good track record in planning long term - just look at the mess Queensland roads are in dealing with the growth in
population here. But the point of my comment was that at least many Governments are at least recogizing that there is a potential problem in the future.
Thanks for your comments,
Cheers,
Glen
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