Oil to reach US$200 per barrel (within 2 years)

Submitted: Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 11:53
ThreadID: 57380 Views:2312 Replies:7 FollowUps:5
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News story; presented as a topic of interest.......no shooting the messenger please!

01:26 GMT - [OIL] prices could reach $200 per barrel in the next two years, according to the same Goldman Sachs analyst who had correctly predicted three years ago that oil prices would top $100 per barrel. The analyst said the possibility of $150-$200 per barrel price seems increasingly likely over the next 6-24 months as only a multi-year decline in global demand would recreate a spare capacity cushion to bring about potentially lower energy prices. The analyst said the factors leading oil price higher remain firmly intact; lack of supply growth as Opec producers are close to capacity, Russian production is slowing and Mexican production is falling while emerging markets (China & India) demand continues to soar.

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Reply By: ob - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 12:23

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 12:23
Anyone thought about the economics and logistics of making small quantities of Bio-diesel at home???

PS Please dont shoot me either...just a thought
AnswerID: 302670

Follow Up By: Member - Brad G (QLD) - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 12:48

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 12:48
This is an interesting thought. I have seen a car (on tele) that has a bio diesel plant built into it allowing it to run on raw waste cooking oil.

Also - Top Gear did a segment on running diesel cars purely on cooking oil (not used oil though) and it worked.

I'm sure it can be done but at the moment you have to be a bit of a bio chemist/scientist to build the gear required.
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Follow Up By: Member - Roscoe ET (QLD) - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 13:51

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 13:51
If you do a google search you'll find a bit about making biodiesel.

Here's one I found a little while back. Same site has some good info on Solarpanels/Batteries etc.http://www.tasmanenergy.com.au/biodiesel.html
FollowupID: 568787

Reply By: Member - Willie , Sydney. - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 12:52

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 12:52
Baz ,
I just worked out that my June trip to WA will cost about $3800 in diesel .
Bugger .
Willie .
AnswerID: 302674

Follow Up By: The Landy - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 13:07

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 13:07
Ridiculous isn't it. It will become a real issue if these guys are right, not to say they will be, but hard to see that there will be any great improvement either....

Oil finished at US$123.53 per barrel this morning....and that was with a firmer US dollar, so demand is just so strong.

Drink more beer; not the answer, but sounds like a good way to forget about it! Which you can partake in (XXXX of course), if you choose, in our little bit of Queensland in the heart of Epping tomorrow....looking forward to it..

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Follow Up By: Member - Warfer (VIC) - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 18:13

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 18:13
Hiya willie

You need to see it as a bargain,imagine what it will cost this time next year,Not getting any cheaper !

FollowupID: 568861

Reply By: Michael ( Moss Vale NSW) - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 14:03

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 14:03
Motorring and air travel was once only for the rich, they say all things come back in fashion!! Michael
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AnswerID: 302684

Reply By: Willem - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 16:00

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 16:00
$200 will bring oil up to $1 a litre wholesale. This ofcourse isn't manufacturing cost plus a profit for wholesale...this is a market price on the stock exchange where people are trading in oil.

We will be decreasing our fleet of 4bies from 2 to 1 before the end of the year and might even revert back to a petrol or LPG fired engine.

Possible scenario is that current government will lose the plot alltogether unless they remove all taxes from fuel. Inflation will soar, rates will go up and up and we may drift into 3rd world status.....maybe.........

Currently taxes on fuel is 38c/l plus 10% GST on the pump sale. That makes the tax on diesel here where I live 55c/l

I have looked at making Biodiesel at home but it isnt worth the effort and mucking around IMHO

AnswerID: 302701

Follow Up By: Gramps (NSW) - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 18:57

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 18:57
Aaaaaaahhhh .. back to the days of the banana republic :)))

FollowupID: 568870

Reply By: Member - David P (VIC) - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 16:57

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 16:57
and the U.S. $ crashes because they have an economy based on domestic consumption (spending) instead of global export (saving)...and they don't want to know about that....silverback
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Reply By: Saharaman (aka Geepeem) - Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 19:18

Thursday, May 08, 2008 at 19:18
Below is a chart of oil prices since 1999. The green line is a five year trend line. Based on this trend it would seem impossible for the price to jump to $200 in two years (at least not permanently anyhow). The only way it could happen if the trend is broken and a new steeper upward trend comes into play which is entirely possible.
Recently Roger Corbett (ex CEO of Woolworths and now Reserve bank Board member - a businessman of some stature) made a remarkable statement. He said in March this year that "a potential massive energy price hike is the greatest challenge facing businesses worldwide". He said it was possible to see a 10 fold increase within 10 years. That means diesel at about $15 per litre if he is right by 2018. So maybe Goldman Sachs is correct. Only time will tell. But by all accounts of the so called oil experts the biggest and fastest price increases will occur post peak oil - somewhere around 2011 - 2015.
So Willem - maybe your trip costing $3800 is not too bad afterall. If Corbett (and others are correct - it could be $38,000 in ten years time.

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Interesting times lay ahead,
AnswerID: 302750

Reply By: PajeroTD - Friday, May 09, 2008 at 03:35

Friday, May 09, 2008 at 03:35
So why don't people look in to getting CNG conversions with the home filling station. It's a growing trend worldwide. Soon the fuel stations will have to sell it! (And it doesn't neeed to be trucked in either!) http://www.iangv.org
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