Economic Crisis wont affect Oz Car Industry ??

Submitted: Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 09:31
ThreadID: 64083 Views:3145 Replies:13 FollowUps:14
This Thread has been Archived
Some experts would have you think that we in Oz are immune to the current goings on around the world. Now, I have no expertise
at all but things look to be going pear shaped to me. It now seems likely that the big 3 US carmakers will take the bankruptcy
option within months, & perhaps that rationalisation is overdue.
On the local scene we have seen Oct sales drop 11%, Nov was
down 22%. Evidence of Dealer failures are increasing. I follow
closely the used values of a certain French marque & can tell you
their value is down 20% in the last two months, making it hard for me to stay out of the market. But I will, as I predict another 20%
will come off yet. If you wish to look at this from a very Oz perspective...note that a new Commodore Omega can be driven
away for less than $30k. Now I am not a doomsdayer, I just
sort through the info available info..my conclusion is that we are
being sold a pup on this crisis, & the real downside is yet to come.
Feel free to shoot me down..I'd love to be proved wrong.
...oldbaz.
Back Expand Un-Read 0 Moderator

Reply By: Member - Redbakk (WA) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 10:08

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 10:08
I wonder if that means my two for one offer from Toyota is still alive?
AnswerID: 338638

Follow Up By: Krakka - Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 06:02

Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 06:02
Redbakk, Holden maybe, ford maybe, TOYOTA, Never, I reckon they would scrap them rather than give you a deal like that!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers
Krakka
0
FollowupID: 606265

Reply By: Member - Footloose - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 10:48

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 10:48
I thought that the Govt had given a rescue package of sorts to the dealers by making finance available again ?
AnswerID: 338642

Follow Up By: donks1 - Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 07:25

Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 07:25
Hi there

They did but it's too late

4 major dealers closed the doors last week alone, and many more are close to doing the same. and that doesn't count all the used car lots that won't return after Xmas

Donks
0
FollowupID: 606270

Reply By: tazbaz - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 10:59

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 10:59
I agree with you oldbaz. A few months and even weeks ago we were being told that in Australia the "fundamentals" were sound! With regard to the present financial situation there are no experts - only charlatans who think they know what's going on. Even now there is still debate about what caused the great depression of the 1930's.
AnswerID: 338644

Follow Up By: Member - Oldbaz. NSW. - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 19:56

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 19:56
What frightens me is when the PM gives half the population a
grand each & says " go spend it quick" today, & tomorrow will
echo the mantra.."we are well positioned to see this out."
Doesnt add up........oldbaz.
0
FollowupID: 606235

Reply By: troopyman - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 11:25

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 11:25
Too much greed , not enough lovin .
AnswerID: 338649

Follow Up By: Richard Kovac - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 21:07

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 21:07
hay troopyman its OK i did a little lovin this morning.. :-))
0
FollowupID: 606242

Reply By: Member - Tony B (QLD) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 11:28

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 11:28
Snowball Effect. This was a big snowball - the Avalanche is on the way. Cant stop it and the walls will not hold it back. We will learn to live with it. Maybee in the future our greed will not be as bad. Best of luck - Cheers Tony. :-)
AnswerID: 338650

Follow Up By: Member - JohnR (Vic) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 14:21

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 14:21
Why sign off with "Cheers" Tony? You are taking the DOOM option.
0
FollowupID: 606191

Follow Up By: Member - Tony B (QLD) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 17:05

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 17:05
John. Life will go on I am happy. Maybee we will learn greed is no good. So why is it gloom - it has to catch up to us someday - obscene wages and stupid uncontrolled lending etc etc will always lead to this. So best of luck and again Cheers Tony.
0
FollowupID: 606211

Reply By: Member - Mick O (VIC) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 12:04

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 12:04
ABC Business today program this morning gave a pretty concise viewpoint of where the crisis will head in 2009. The opinions were sought from several heads of various business sectors. Outlook was not good. Australia will be in a recession next year. If your employment is secure and you don't rely on investment income, either stock market or property based, or on people buying the products you manufacture, you'll have cheaper petrol and Interest rates. If not, it's a gloomy year or two ahead for the majority of people in the workforce and no doubt for a lot of the members on this forum who are retired and derive their income from their super and other investments.

I don't know if it's just me but have we all been lulled into a sense of false security by the prosperous decade we've just been through. I can remember two other disastrous economic times in my relatively medium termed life (I ain't old yet). I don't know what the answers are but pragmatism, common sense, financial caution and knuckling down, all on a personal level, will hopefully see us through as they all ways have. The majority of the outback is still free so that's a positive (and hopefully diesel will be cheap enough to get us there).

Mick
''We knew from the experience of well-known travelers that the
trip would doubtless be attended with much hardship.''
Richard Maurice - 1903

Lifetime Member
My Profile  My Blog  My Position  Send Message

AnswerID: 338652

Reply By: jomahk - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 12:07

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 12:07
The banks are offering a rescue finance package to the car dealers not the govt. History shows that what goes in the US follows on in Oz about 6 months later; however not necessary to the same degree. Of course we will hurt; its just a matter of how much. As you stated, new car sales are off compared to the earlier months this year and the after Xmas period will probally be a telling one for all Oz retailers. I think early 2009 will be a great time to grab a super deal on a new vehicle but the downside will be an absolute bleep of a trade in price.
AnswerID: 338654

Follow Up By: Member - Footloose - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 13:45

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 13:45
Not quite
"The new trust, while financed by the big banks, will be guaranteed by Canberra. The cost of the guarantee to taxpayers is unknown, and the Government declined to give a figure yesterday."
The Age Newspaper, 5/12/08
0
FollowupID: 606190

Follow Up By: Dave B (NSW) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 15:02

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 15:02
I agree with jomahk about the trade in prices, they won't be anything to write home about.
If new cars are a lot cheaper due to discounts or giveaways, that means the people potentially in the 2nd hand market will probably go for the new one if they can get one for only a few $K's more.
Obviously that means less demand for used cars.

I would imagine that the stamp duty you pay to the Govt. will be on the normal price of the new car, not the discounted price.
Can't see the Govt. giving a 'special discount'.

Difficult to know when to buy a new car if you are in the market.
I reckon there will be heaps of 2008 plated cars around for quite a while in the dealers yards, so the deals will get pretty sharp after the new year when they become a 'year older'.

Dave
'Wouldn't be dead for quids'

Lifetime Member
My Profile  My Blog  Send Message

0
FollowupID: 606196

Reply By: Steve - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 13:26

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 13:26
Interesting, how some of this "downturn" is affecting various businesses. I presume the caravan/camper dealers are suffering like the car yards. Yet, most people in retail that I come across are doing ok and everybody that I know in the building trade are stacked with work, which I find surprising, given the medium/long term financial committment required from the buyer/homeowner. I suppose these car dealers are committed to take on new stock which is not moving on. Maybe depreciating assets and all that.......?? Just hope the gloom isn't as widespread or lasting as feared.
AnswerID: 338659

Follow Up By: Member - Brian H (QLD) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 15:32

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 15:32
Interesting Steve about the building trade. Running a building business I have plenty of work to keep me going. I have mixed results on tradies the last two weeks I have received calls from carpenters looking for work. I had a quote to do the other day and needed a tree lopper called 12 to meet at various times over a few days NOT ONE TURNED UP, at least I know 12 I will never call or use lol.

I do feel things will go quite next year but good reasonably priced tradies will also have work.

As for the vehicle industry I would like to upscale my vehicle the problem is not sure what next year will bring, may not be the time to go into debt.

Brian
0
FollowupID: 606199

Follow Up By: Steve - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 18:10

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 18:10
I get the impression there are a lot of carpenters about - you'd know better than I though. In my own trade, furniture and upholstery it's very patchy. Some businesses going strong yet some struggling. A mate of mine has a very small waterfront block with a boathouse on it. He's contacted four builders so far to knock down and rebuild and can't get anybody interested.
0
FollowupID: 606217

Follow Up By: Member - lyndon K (SA) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 18:38

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 18:38
Hi Brian

I am surprised that you felt the need to ring 12 contractors?
I used to work in a similar field and I would of always turn up when I said so. Having said that I had plenty of jobs I turned away without even going there as I could tell I wasn't going to get the job before I went there.
"You do cheap, maybe I get you again" etc etc etc
I found anyone that got a huge number of quotes just wanted the cheapest job they could possibly get, and then wondered why they got a crap job or the person didn't turn up.

My two bobs worth.

Cheers Lyndon
Now is the only time you own
Decide now what you will,
Place faith not in tomorrow
For the clock may then be still

Member
My Profile  My Position  Send Message

0
FollowupID: 606225

Follow Up By: Member - Brian H (QLD) - Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 23:53

Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 23:53
I always get a minimum of 2 quotes of people I don't usually deal with as I don't usually use tree loppers and we had just had a major storm so I called 3 none turned up so just kept calling contractors all would say they would turn up but did not. I assume it was because they were all flat out with storm damage, but a call to say cannot make it would have been nice, save wasting my time driving to the site.

I never simply use the cheapest quote I've found they usually cost you more in the end or as you say the job is crap.

As you said surprised I called 12 gotta agree but only called that many simple when others just did not turn up.

I'm pleased to say I finally got my price from 2 contractors and both are within $100.00. Don't care who gets the job it will come down to who can make it when needed.

Brian
0
FollowupID: 606408

Reply By: Member - Lionel A (WA) - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 14:39

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 14:39
Just curious how this will affect the second-hand car market.

Cheers....Lionel.
AnswerID: 338663

Reply By: Axel [ the real one ] - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 18:05

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 18:05
All anyone can do is smile , expert economists predicted "prosperity"for all just before the great depression , expert economists told us 12/18 mths ago that all is well ,now the same experts cry foul or that its a "market correction" and all will be well again in a year or three ,,, smile , history just repeating the inevitable and perhaps we will one day learn that the catch cry of "greed is good" is not that good after all.
AnswerID: 338690

Follow Up By: Steve - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 18:22

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 18:22
A lot of it is knee-jerk response to conditions that only become apparent to "expert economists" (ie: RBA) three months after the event, at best. So most of these measures come along in hindsight and still they over-compensate or under-compensate. Those of us at the sharp end are well aware of conditions as they occur. Such as struggling businesses 6/9 months ago whilst the RBA were merrily jacking up interest rates. I appreciate they can only respond to information as they receive it, but blind Freddie could've told them that inflation was running high because of mining exports distorting figures as well as rising fuel costs and, wait for it...........rising interest rates. Not because everybody was lashing out on new furniture, hi-fi equipment or even going out on the town.
0
FollowupID: 606219

Follow Up By: Member - Footloose - Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 21:13

Sunday, Dec 07, 2008 at 21:13
Steve, I would have to agree with you there. Things have been going downhill since last Xmas, when we had the "war on inflation". RBA kept raising the interest rates and then it was "oopsies" time, and they dropped them faster than a bride's _Affordable_Storage_Drawers.aspx.
Too late old chum.
0
FollowupID: 606246

Reply By: Flywest - Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 02:28

Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 02:28
read somewhere that about 900 auto dealers in theu USA went belly up inthe last month.

Also read somewhere that 1GMH dealer in Melb went to the wall and holden won;t take the inventory back - all the vehicles new & used to go to Pickles Auctions with no reserves.....

I'd say it is only the start here.

Local GMH dealer last week still isn't giving them away tho - didnt even offer a discount off Full RRP for cash no trade - needless to say he lost a sale!

I'll wait till he's hurting a bit more before I go back.

Who knows - things get bad enough he might even Pay me to take one off his hands! ;o)

Cheers
AnswerID: 338741

Reply By: bgreeni - Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 12:58

Monday, Dec 08, 2008 at 12:58
My Novated lease on a Fairlane expires early 2009. Pickles are saying they want $7K plus vehicle to pay out end of contract. Shows where they think 2nd hand car prices are going.

Bruce
AnswerID: 338794

Reply By: Member - Ed. C. (QLD) - Tuesday, Dec 09, 2008 at 00:58

Tuesday, Dec 09, 2008 at 00:58
An ailing car industry is only a tiny part of a much bigger problem.....

Some "interesting" reading to be found on the Global Research website... (keep ya occupied for a while;-))

This article is printed in the current issue (Vol. 16, No.1) of "Nexus" magazine...

Vewy,vewy intewesting indeed (not to mention just a little bit scary)..................


Confucius say.....
"He who lie underneath automobile with tool in hand,
....Not necessarily mechanic!!"

Member
My Profile  Send Message

AnswerID: 338891

Sponsored Links

Popular Products (9)