any bets ??

Submitted: Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:01
ThreadID: 64350 Views:2981 Replies:13 FollowUps:14
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The 13 nations who come under the OPEC umbrella are to cut oil production by 2 million barrells per day . the reason ? they say is less demand , any bets that the real reason is that by cutting production the "demand " ergo the PRICE goes up ,,, prepare to be ripped off once again.
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Reply By: Geoff (Newcastle, NSW) - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:14

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:14
Mate, I'm surprised it took them this long!
Geoff,

Grey hair is hereditary, you get it from children. Baldness is caused by watching the Wallabies.

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Reply By: darrell.QLD - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:32

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:32
What........they make less and charge more.....
they wouldnt do that!!!!........would they??
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Follow Up By: oldpop - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:45

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:45
Darrell
can not trust those t o w e l l heads can not even throw shoes properly

Regards Oldpop
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Follow Up By: Dave... Adelaide (SA) - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 19:52

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 19:52
PMSL oldpop.....Pure gold mate...lol
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Follow Up By: ajd - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 23:17

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 23:17
oldpop, I thought that racial vilification was not tolerated here.

Towellheads is a terribly racist term.

Can we please be civil on this site!!
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Follow Up By: Member - Glenn D (NSW) - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 23:35

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 23:35
Looks more like a table cloth any way .

LOL
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Reply By: darrell.QLD - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:55

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 18:55
oldpop,,that is the fastest thing that man has ever done....
me thinks 'daddy bush' threw a lot of things at him when he
was young..........he can duck .......lol
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Reply By: Member - Footloose - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 19:03

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 19:03
Poor OPEC. They are really starting to feel the pinch. Those palaces and gold mercedes are expensive to run, don't cha know ?
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Reply By: Member - Lionel A (WA) - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 20:25

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 20:25
Why dont we cut our grain and lamb production.

Let them eat their bloody oil.

Cheers....Lionel.
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Reply By: Member - Hairs & Fysh (NSW) - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 20:47

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 20:47
Hey Axel, I agree that we're being screwed.
12 months ago we were being screwed. Nothings changed. Now, wiser men than I, run the show when it comes to oil, the Aus dollar, supply & demand, futures trading and all manner of making a quick buck on commodities.
I understand that we need other energy sources, oil based products are not infinite, but, ATM that's all us mere morals have to get us from A to B, it's oil.
It doesn't matter what price it is, I need it to run my business and life style, and the powers that be know this.
No matter what price it is, I have to change my way of doing things. If that means cutting back on small weekend trips, thinking twice about the kids taking up sport in the next town, they are the things I gotta do, love or hate it.
People can defend OPEC till the cows come home, and they will because they have a financial interest in oil companies.

What really gets under my skin is that KRudd went to an election telling us he had the answers to higher fuel costs. And people fell for his spin.
Axel you ask 'Any bets'
Well, If you have a monopoly of the magnitude that OPEC does, Sorry all bets are off.
I know I'm being had. Why throw good money after bad?
But your are right.
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Reply By: Best Off Road - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 21:40

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 21:40
"ripped off"

NO

It is simple economics, if thay have something to sell they will get the best price they can, be it fuel or turnips.

If they oversupply, the price drops.

If the product is in short supply the price rises. Remember when bananas hit $14/kilo in Australia?

Jim.

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Follow Up By: Axel [ the real one ] - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:09

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:09
Jumbo you must be joking , bananas at $14 per kg had a reason ,simply that there were none to be had , oil on the other hand is there ,GREED dictates the price of oil , a man turns a tap to create the shortage to increase the price and YOU condone it.
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Follow Up By: Robnicko - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:26

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:26
Jim,
Bananas $14kg was steep but 1 banana was still a better choice than a $2 Mars Bar......

Now it's the Ham suppliers turn to scare monger because Christmas is coming, everyone wants a Christmas Ham so what do they do? They say there will be a shortage which means prices will skyrocket.

Seems everyone wants thier turn at a quick buck

But as the OPEC minister said to John Howard 'reduce your tax on fuel as fuel is cheap, Tax makes it expensive'

Rob

PS. got bananas today for $1.45kg....big buggers too!

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Follow Up By: Best Off Road - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 07:01

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 07:01
Axel,

Read Gramps' response, then re read my response, then grab a year 11 economics book and look up "Supply and Demand", then look up "Market Forces".

All will be explained.

Cheers,

Jim.

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Follow Up By: Member - Oldplodder (QLD) - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 08:35

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 08:35
I am with Jim on this one.

Reason pork has gone up in price and has become scarce is the drop in the aussie dollar.
When the dollar was high, our retailers imported subsidised pork from canada and the states. Basically saying stuff you to our local pig growers. The local growers got caught between the grain price rises and us consumers wanting cheap pork, so a few got out of the industry. The retailers were happy to oblige.
Now the dollar has dropped, Canada and the states can't match the price, so say no. So the retailers put the pressure on our local growers to ramp up production for Christmas. Just so they can still sell cheap pork.
Pork prices will go up, and the money will stay in Oz this time.
Good on the pig farmers, they might actually might have a Christmas they can afford this year.
We do it to ourselves every time. For the sake of saving a couple of dollars, we are ready to switch supply to overseas and cut our own throats.
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Follow Up By: Best Off Road - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 10:13

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 10:13
It's easy enough to understand John.

Further down this thread I've posted an interview with Bill Evans that I heard on AM this morning.

That's the value of listening to well informed news prorammes rather than jumping to conclusions after hearing a five second, headline grabbing quote, from some of our less reputable media outlets.

Cheers,

Jim.

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Follow Up By: Member - Oldplodder (QLD) - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 13:03

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 13:03
Jim,

Nothing to do with oil.

I have seen the purchasing strategy of a large retailer in Australia in three cases. Two at close hand.

1. garden hardware.
Had an associate who had a good little business making spades and wheel barrows etc. Got a contract with the big retailer to make say a 1000 of each product for next year. About 50% of his turnover. Thought great. Next year, came to negotiate for the following year, they said double the amount, but for a slight discount, say 5%. He looked at the figures, bit less margin, but more quantity, said OK. Was about 70% of his turnover for that year. Third year, big retailer said 50% more again, but for 10% less. He looked at his figures, and said no, can't do it. How about 5% less? No said the big retailer, we will be 90% of your turnover, we decide the price, take it or leave it. So he said no, and had to close the business down. The big retailer knew exactly what they were doing, and went else where. Most probably already had soem one lined up.
2. frozen peas.
The big retailer had been using the same ozzie company for a few years to buy their frozen peas. One year they tried to negotiate for a discount. Supplier said no, so the retailer went to NZ for the peas for a couple of years. The producer closed one plant and almost another. Jobs lost in Oz by a few hundred. Became a supplier again a few years later, lesson learnt.
3. meat.
Friend with a killing floor and retail butcher's business went to the board of a big retailer who sold meat as part of their business, and offered to work together, would save one money with the butchers expertise, and boost the business of the butcher. Nope, not interested said the retailer. We are better of buying $1m worth of corn flakes on a 45 day account, selling them in two weeks, and make more money with $1m on the short term money market. Buying the corn flakes gave them access to $1m of some elses money.

You live and you learn, and what you think you see is not always the case.
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Follow Up By: Best Off Road - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 13:21

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 13:21
John,

How long ago was 1 ?

That large retailer has breached the "unconscionable conduct" rule if it was in reasonably recent times. Could be easily sued.

Cheers,

Jim.

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Follow Up By: Member - Oldplodder (QLD) - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 16:23

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 16:23
It was more than 10 years ago now.

Nature of the beast in trading in doing business.

May not be allowed now, but they most probably do similar things inside the law now that have the same result.

As you say, we harp on about oil and pork prices, but the real story behind the scenes is a lot more complex.
And 30 sec grabs by media outlets is really only there to 'sell the news' and let you feel you know what is going on. Point is to have you watching when the adds are on so the media outlet can get some income.
Find it interesting the difference between the commercial TV 6pm news and the SBS 9:30pm world news. The 6pm news doesn't report half the stuff that SBS does, and both are 30min time slots.
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Reply By: Member - lyndon K (SA) - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:17

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:17
Here in the NT prices have not really come down anyway, diesel is still at around $1.50 ltr
Now is the only time you own
Decide now what you will,
Place faith not in tomorrow
For the clock may then be still

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Follow Up By: Member - Oldplodder (QLD) - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 08:36

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 08:36
Thats still cheaper than the $1.87 I was paying in Darwin in August, and $2.35 at the three ways. :o)
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Reply By: Gramps (NSW) - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:22

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:22
ROFLMAO

Who owns the oil ? They do.

Who wants the oil ? "We" do.

What's a fair price for the oil ? Whatever "we're" prepared to pay.

So endeth the lesson.


ps When are you lot going to finally get the message regarding fuel prices. They are what they are and you have absolutely NO hope of changing that.


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Follow Up By: The Landy - Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:55

Wednesday, Dec 17, 2008 at 22:55
Gramps....that sums it up perfectly.
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Reply By: Robin Miller - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 07:45

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 07:45
I see the price has dropped again on the announcement, not gone up Axel.
Touching $39 , even after 3 production cuts and going into the northern winter, with stocks of oil actually rising - should be an interesting 2009.

Oh well ! short term we might just fill up for xmas at under 90c / liter.
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Reply By: The Landy - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 07:58

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 07:58
News story out overnight……despite the production cuts oil actually fell US$3.50 per barrel….The Landy

ORAN, Algeria, Dec 17 (Reuters) - OPEC oil ministers agreed their deepest output cut ever on Wednesday, cutting 2.2 million barrels per day from oil markets in a race to balance supply with rapidly crumbling demand for fuel.

The 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries were also aiming to build a floor under prices that have dropped more than $100 from a July peak above $147 a barrel.

The cut, effective Jan. 1, comes atop existing curbs of 2 million bpd agreed by OPEC since September. It lowers the supply target for the 11 members bound by output limits to 24.845 million bpd -- down nearly 15 percent from September output.
"I hope we surprised you -- if not, we have to do something about it," said OPEC President Chakib Khelil, host of the conference.

Oil prices fell $3.54 a barrel to $40.06 following the deal after weekly U.S. data showed inventories in the world's biggest consumer continued to swell.

Washington quickly condemned OPEC's attempts to end cheaper oil prices. Its cut, the third this year, brings a total reduction in OPEC supply to 4.2 million bpd, taking nearly five percent of world supply off the market.

"OPEC has an obligation to keep the market well supplied and to consider the health of the global economy, so efforts to limit the benefits of lower energy prices are short-sighted," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto.

A deepening recession is threatening to shrink world demand for two years running and fuel inventories are bulging. Prices already have plunged by two-thirds since the summer and analysts say the oil market is under the sway of world financial turmoil.
"The world economy is driving the price more than anything OPEC can do at this stage," said Gary Ross, CEO of consultancy PIRA Energy. "It will be hard for the cuts to have any traction with regard to price in a deteriorating economic environment."

OPEC's president said the group would do its utmost to ensure new restraints were strictly enforced.

"I can tell you it's going to be implemented and it's going to be implemented very well because we do not have a choice," said Khelil, also Algeria's energy minister.
"If not, the situation is going to get worse."

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has led by example -- reducing supplies to customers even before a cut was agreed to help push prices back towards the $75 level Saudi King Abdullah has identified as "fair."

"The purpose of the cut is to bring the market into balance and avoid the gyrations of the price," said Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. "The cut may lead to higher prices or may not."

FEELING THE PAIN
Oil below $50 is uncomfortable for all producing nations, but especially for OPEC members Venezuela and Iran which are dependent on higher prices to fund ambitious domestic programmes.

OPEC hopes that a sharp supply cut will set oil on the path towards $75 -- a level the group believes is needed to encourage investment in future supply.

"You must understand the purpose of the $75 price is for a much more noble cause," the Saudi Oil Minister said. "You need every producer to produce and marginal producers cannot produce at $40 a barrel."

The influential Saudi Oil Minister clearly outlined the kingdom's route to lower production.

It is pumping 8.2 million bpd against 9.7 million bpd in August. Saudi Arabia's implied output target is about 8.477 million bpd under existing OPEC curbs.
To have a lasting price impact, any OPEC deal must to be strictly observed.

According to independent observers cited in OPEC's monthly report on Tuesday, the group's compliance in November to existing cuts was only just over 50 percent.
OPEC has encouraged other producers to cut back too. Russia and Azerbaijan attended the Oran meeting as observers and have said they could rein in exports in future, but stopped short of am immediate pledge.

Leading a high level delegation, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said in a speech to OPEC that Moscow did not plan to join in coordinated output cuts and did not want to join the group in the foreseeable future.

End Story
AnswerID: 340218

Reply By: landed eagle - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 09:14

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 09:14
Whatever the price.....still beats pulling a camper trailer around Aust in a harness!!!
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Reply By: Best Off Road - Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 10:08

Thursday, Dec 18, 2008 at 10:08
Transcript of interview with Bill Evans, Chief Economist at Westpac.



TONY EASTLEY: Economists say OPEC's cut in production will take a while before it hits bowser prices in Australia.

Bill Evans the chief economist at Westpac told Brigid Glanville petrol prices should remain at current levels for the short term even though prices jumped overnight in some states.

BILL EVANS: Well I think it is sending us a fairly clear message that OPEC does not want to see the oil price go below US$40. I think that is a very sensitive level for them and they will do what they can on the supply side to try and ensure that.

The problem of course is that demand is collapsing globally as the world economy just continues to slow down dramatically. We are looking at world growth next year as possibly only one per cent. We are seeing data out of China now suggesting that activity is actually contracting.

So it is going to be a fascinating issue as to how OPEC deals with this collapse in demand and of course, their most important action will be to cut supply but I would be surprised if we see sharp rises in the oil price given this very weak demand that we expect to continue through next year.

BRIGID GLANVILLE: So the recent petrol price rises that many consumers have seen at the bowser, that is not in relation to OPEC's cut?

BILL EVANS: Well I think that the OPEC cut has happened very quickly. No, I would expect that clearly those guidelines that you tend to use, things fluctuate around those guidelines depending upon domestic demand, depending upon actual distilling costs etc.

But broadly speaking if we can look into our crystal ball and say that the world oil price in Aussie dollar terms is going to be up by say 10 per cent next year then we would expect petrol prices to be up by about five per cent.

TONY EASTLEY: Bill Evans, the chief economist at Westpac speaking there with Brigid Glanville.


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