Diesel Pump Prices - Quick Observation

Submitted: Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 10:41
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A quick note on wholesale diesel prices over the past week. Singapore gasoil, the regional benchmark, has been falling in US dollar terms over the last week and the refinery margins, the money refiners make from converting oil to fuels, is currently at lower levels versus the average. Falls in the price of the refined product has also mirrored the fall in crude prices fairly closely. All good news….for a change!

The offset has been the sharp fall in the value of the Australian dollar over the past few trading sessions. The currency fall has outpaced the fall in the regional diesel price so this is a risk pointing towards higher diesel prices at the pump over the next week or so. The currency input into diesel pricing is usually worked on a seven day moving average by the wholesalers. So the impact will become more noticeable in terms of wholesale pricing over the next couple of days.

The weekly average retail pump price (metro & regional included) has been around $1.28 over the past week; the risk is that this might start to push higher over the next week or so.
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Reply By: Member - Hairs & Fysh (North - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 11:31

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 11:31
Hi Landy,
One thing I don't understand, and I admit it, If the us economy is such a basket case and so are many others, and our economy is in a little better shape than theirs.
At this point we have not had the employment lay off's, we still have pretty much a low unemployment rates compered to other economies. We all so have higher interest rates than most and inflation is not at very high levels.

Why is our dollar worth what it is against the US$?

Hmmm


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Follow Up By: The Landy - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:23

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:23
Hi Jon

That is a fair question and one that wouldn’t be easily answered here, if at all.

Markets being what they are rarely look at what is happening today, but price in expectations of what will happen in the future. The reality is that commodity prices have fallen substantially over the past few months and the outlook remains depressed.

It could be argued that Australia’s economic fortunes are about to change for the worst, and this is what is being priced into the currency at present.

Perversely, whilst the US economy is a basket case, in times of uncertainty many will buy US Treasuries (bonds) and this creates a demand for the US dollar. Looking around the world it is hard to find anywhere that you might want to park your money, at the moment markets are electing that the US dollar wins.

Having said all of that, I’ve been involved in trading currencies and commodities for the last 20 years and I gave up trying to rationalise why markets do things a long time ago – it usually costs too much money to indulge in that past-time!

Cheers
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Follow Up By: Member - Hairs & Fysh (North - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:41

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:41
Landy,
Thanks again for the time you put into trying to explaining things to someone like myself that isn't necessarily the sharpest tool in the shed. Things have certainly changed from when I did economics at school some 25 years ago.
You know some times, when you have a gut feeling? Well this is one of them, were things don't seem to add up.
I appreciate too, that there are uncertain times ahead for this country and a lot of people will feel a lot of pain, job security, Mortgage stress, and inflation.
Maybe one day Landy our paths will cross and I may get the chance to sit down and chat about such things. :)

Cheers


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Follow Up By: The Landy - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 13:23

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 13:23
Jon

Would be more than happy to do that......I think they are re-writing the textbooks after the past 12 months....
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Reply By: Time - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 11:36

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 11:36
..and I note again that the terminal gate price difference between diesel and ULP is around 16c/l, but the pump price difference at my local Shell is 33c/l !!!

Diesel users are being ripped off!
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Follow Up By: Member - Hairs & Fysh (North - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 11:46

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 11:46
I've got a hunch that the retail diesel buyer is helping to paying for the diesel rebate to those that can claim it.
Eg; Transport, Primary Producers, Mining Industry and the like.
The government has to get it from some were.

Then again I could probably be completely wrong. :)



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Follow Up By: Angler - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:14

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:14
You are dead right there, the rebate can be up to around 30cents hence the price difference overall.

Ron
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Follow Up By: Member - John (Vic) - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 13:31

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 13:31
Pending on the user its up to 38 cents.

Have a look here for Fuel Tax Credits
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Follow Up By: Member - John (Vic) - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 13:36

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 13:36
Hairs that would be suggesting that the State or Fed Government is controlling fuel prices??

Somehow I don't think thats the case :-)


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Follow Up By: Member - Hairs & Fysh (North - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 14:11

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 14:11
John,
Just recently the NSW state Government took away the 8 cents a liter rebate to us Northern NSW consumers. So effectively they do control the price. Just as QLD can give their rebate. And lets not forget in QLD you get more off if you prove your a resident of QLD. So yes they can control the price.

The Fuel Watch Commissioner has been awfully quiet of late. Yet he is still being payed by us Taxpayers.

Just like it would not surprise me if some secret deal had been done to keep prices high, therefore more tax the Governments rakes in.
I just wonder what it costs per year to give such a rebate?
I guess it would be staggering.

I know I'm a cynical bugger at times :)




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Follow Up By: Geoff (Newcastle, NSW) - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 21:29

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 21:29
"The Fuel Watch Commissioner has been awfully quiet of late"

The bugger is doing exactly what he was told to do, Kev said, "You just watch the price of fuel young fella"

He's watched it go up, he's watched it go down.

Were's the problem?

Geoff

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Reply By: JR - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:56

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 12:56
This rebate is from the Fed govt
Whats it got to do with pump price or terminal gate price?
JR
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Follow Up By: Member - DAZA (QLD) - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 15:36

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 15:36
Diesel is currently $1.159 on the Southern Gold Coast Area, and
our so called discount servos are $1.199 re Woolworths / Coles,
and with the 4 cents off they match every one else.
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Reply By: Isuzumu - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 15:56

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 15:56
There is a good read in the latest 4WD Action on pump prices, it enlightened me to wants going on and I thought I had a bit of a handle on it.

Cheers Bruce.
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Follow Up By: Member - Hairs & Fysh (North - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 16:30

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 16:30
Hey Bruce you don't happen to have a link to it do you?

cheers



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Follow Up By: Isuzumu - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 18:25

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 18:25
No sorry Jon get the mag on subscription.

Cheers Bruce
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Follow Up By: Member - Hairs & Fysh (North - Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 20:52

Wednesday, Jan 14, 2009 at 20:52
Not to worry Bruce,
A mate subscribes to it, I'll ask him for a loan.
Just thought I'd ask.

Cheers.


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Reply By: aka - Thursday, Jan 15, 2009 at 07:11

Thursday, Jan 15, 2009 at 07:11
Deiesel was once half price of petrol .Doubled the price in1979
AnswerID: 344366

Reply By: The Landy - Thursday, Jan 15, 2009 at 11:06

Thursday, Jan 15, 2009 at 11:06
Further to my note yesterday, this story was out this morning, highlighting that demand for diesel fuels in the US is declining rapidly.

Story follows.

06:06 15Jan09 RTRS-UPDATE 2-U.S. economic slowdown slams diesel demand
(Adds details)

NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - U.S. demand for diesel has fallen to a five-year low and could keep slipping as the effects of an economic downturn deepen in the trucking and manufacturing sectors, analysts said on Wednesday.

The drop comes amid a similar decline in American gasoline use that has contributed to a slump of more than $110 in world crude oil prices, adding to the mountain of evidence a financial crisis stemming from the soured U.S. housing sector is hurting consumers and businesses.

U.S. demand for distillate fuels like diesel fell about 5.7 percent in 2008 and posted a dramatic 15 percent slide last week to the lowest level since 2004, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

While data in the EIA report can vary wildly from week to week, energy analysts and economists said the steep drop in implied consumption was a clear sign that the U.S. financial crisis was taking root.

"This appears to be a reflection of the underlying weakness in the U.S. economy," said John Duff, an analyst at the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"The biggest part of the decline was for ultra-low sulfur diesel, which tends to be used for shipping and hauling and is affected by things like industrial production," he said.

Much of the decline in U.S. diesel demand can be tied to a historic downturn in the trucking sector, hard hit by weakness in the retail and construction businesses, according to the American Trucking Associations. Trucks consumed some 40 billion gallons of diesel in 2008.

"We've taken a really big hit," said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello.
The amount of freight moved along the nation's highways has fallen by about 20 percent over the past six months, the biggest decline since the group started keeping records in the 1960s, he said.

"If you've got 20 percent less freight, you're going to consume a lot less diesel fuel. The outlook is not good, either. There's absolutely no indication whatsoever that freight volumes will improve this year," he said.

The drop in diesel demand contributed to an increase of 6.4 million barrels in U.S. commercial stockpiles of distillates last week, according to the EIA data. That increase exceeded analyst expectations by nearly six-fold and helped push oil prices down $1 a barrel Wednesday.
The EIA last month became the first high-profile energy forecaster to predict a decline in global petroleum consumption due to the effects of the financial crisis. The last time world energy use dropped was in 1983.
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Follow Up By: Member - Hairs & Fysh (NSW) - Thursday, Jan 15, 2009 at 19:14

Thursday, Jan 15, 2009 at 19:14
Thanks Landy,
It throws a bit more light on it.
When explained in those terms I can start to see how the wheels turn, Or don't, so to speak.

Cheers


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