As a follow on to
Footloose (Post 32203), this may be appropriate. His scenario is vastly different to ours and would likely require some different solutions.
I am aware that there are excellent articles on risk in the Trip Planning section and I do not wish to detract in any way. I'm sure the clever people that wrote them would prefer them discussed rather than just read.
This may be of assistance to a few (more so the inexperienced) on this
forum. I am in the planning stages and wish to identify risk, so use a KISS model of Risk Assessment. I do not take this too seriously; some may consider it nonsense. It is what most do naturally when embarking on higher risk ventures, however it gives ideas a structure. Bit of fun really. Taken to the extreme, risk alleviation is not doing it at all, or legislating to prevent it.
Do not confuse me with an expert, many of you are more capable & experienced in this area than I ever will be. Input is appreciated. Non-expert input is also appreciated; experts sometimes become tunnel visioned. (Should have insulted everybody there LOL)
Step 1 is to work out what you actually want to do.
Mine is:
Scenario: 6 x grumpy old men (30 - 60) in 3 vehicles travelling from Victoria to
Simpson Desert to Alice across
Gary Junction to Kurawaritji Community down
Canning Stock Route to
Wiluna back along Gunbarrel to Uluru to
Coober Pedy and
home. July/Aug. 3 have travelled Simpson more than once. None have ventured past Alice. 1 is insulin dependent, the rest of us are just wearing out slowly.
Step 2 is having sufficient knowledge to make an informed guess on what you are actually likely to face. Can be from similar experience and/or others. This site is a prime resource.
Step 3 is to identify your risk factors. Draw up a list of the potential problems you think you may face in your scenario (perhaps jamming them into broad categories) and filter them through the following process
FREQUENCY: This is the perceived likelihood of an event occurring (scored 1 Unlikely - 5 Definite). I have not got the number of incidents per 10,000 or whatever (if they exist), so this has to be a gut feeling.
IMPACT: This is the possible effect on comfort (scored 1 Inconvenient - 5 Potentially Life Threatening).
SCORE: The 2 previous figures are added to give a score out of 10. I personally would not bother with scores of 5 or less, as they are potentially problems rather than risky situations. Personality Clash: likely to rear its ugly head (3) but just annoys everyone (1) = 4. Flat Tyre: Probable (4) but just has to be fixed (1) = 5. (20 flats might be different). Does not mean you cannot look at mitigation, but it should not be life threatening of itself.
Step 4 is to think of ways to mitigate the impact of your identified risks. It is not necessary to do everything conceivable to eradicate the risk, you can't; the underlying risk remains, with the greatest risk being a combining of some or all. You need to do what you can until you feel comfortable accepting the risk.
Mine has ended up looking like this. Possibly a bit of overkill (for someone with local knowledge & experience the risk score & mitigation may reduce considerably), but it's a good place for our group to start. Some mitigation has been looked at, but rejected for one reason or another
Medical/Injury Situation 3 + 5 = 8
Sat Phone (Emerg Nos
Police, RFDS, Hospitals)
Medical Kit (1st Aid, Trauma)
1st Aid Qualifications in Group
Specialist Advice on recog & treat Diabetes
Knowledge of Alt Routes / Air Strips / Civilisation
Vehicle
Breakdown / Accident 3 + 4 = 7
Pre Trip Mechanical
Check PV
Pre Trip practice with equipment
2 x
winches in party (user knowledge)
Dual Battery PV
Tow Ropes, snatch straps, cables & shackles
2 x spares + 2 tubes + Patches + Valves PV
Air Compressor PV
Tools (engine, tyres, electrical) PV
Spares (engine,
suspension)
Mechanic in party (carries his workshop!!!)
Tools recovery (Spades, Jacks) PV
Spare belts, hoses, filters, fuses, wiring PV
Gaffer Tape, Duct Tape,
Putty & Fencing Wire
Full change of engine oil, transmission oil PV
Sand Flag & Scanning UHF CB PV
Intention forms left
Knowledge of fuel supply points
Sat Phone (Recovery Option Nos)
20% more fuel to requirements PV
Remote Navigation 1 + 5 = 6
GPS & computer mapping (paper backup)
Map Reading Qualifications in group
Food/Water 1 + 5 = 6
5 x day ration packs PP surplus to food requirements
Minimum perishables
15 litres of water PP surplus to requirements
Water in separate 20L containers
PV = per vehicle
PP = per person
Have I identified our risks correctly?
Has anyone some practical mitigation strategies?