LNG exports to China
Submitted: Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 00:30
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Frank_Troopy
Hi,
John Howard is in China at the moment crowing about the liquid natural gas deal. Can anyone explain to me how this deal is anything other than a tragedy for Aussies who run motor vehicles? The Northwest Shelf project is producing around 12 million tonnes of liquid gas each year. For the next 25 years we are locked into a deal with China, selling our liquid gas at a fixed price of around 3 cents per litre. That price is really cheap now, just imagine how ridiculous it will be in 25 years.
A gas-to-liquid plant could convert that gas to diesel fuel and supply more than 50% of the distillate we are currently using and it would do so at a price that would be a fraction of what we will be paying for the fuel we distil from imported crude oil. If over time we adopted diesel cars instead of petrol (LNG cannot be converted to petrol), our fuel could be supplied from our own resource rather than from imported crude.
Australia is currently a net energy exporter. The higher the price of fuel, the more money is made by the exporters and the more the government receives in royalties.
Wouldn't it be nice to have a government that acted in the interests of Australians. After all, the gas
reserves are a resource that is owned by all Australians. What better way to spend some of the future fund money than on a gas-to-liquid plant to produce diesel fuel?
Sorry to all you Howard supporters but I get so peeved by the deals his government does that always seem to favour overseas interests.
I feel better now I've got that off my chest.
Cheers Frank.
Reply By: Barnesy - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 02:58
Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 02:58
Seems like you know more about converting LNG to diesel than i do but i'm sure Johnny had his reasons. Sucking up to someone bigger probably, just like he sucked up last week with removal of biodiesel tax incentives at the request of big oil companies.
He probably made some deal where China gets cheap LNG from us and we get cheap TV's etc from them. No doubt China would be getting a better deal than we are.
Without getting too political, but the price of crude skyrocketed about the same time the Yanks (and us) invaded Iraq. I'm not saying they're connected. It must be a coincidence. Johnny sucked up to Bush then too.
It would be good to have a government that acted on the long term sustainablitiy of Oz, not just the bottom line.
Barnesy
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Reply By: Member - Rotord - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:26
Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:26
Glad to see that after much clacking of the abacus counters we were getting to a more mature grasp of the economics of the China deal . Don't know why you bothered , all you had to do was a simple analysis of Woodside .
You remember Woodside . They were the small Aussie company who had a share in the North West Shelf gas discoveries . They are now a giant Aussie company thanks mainly to the export of LNG . Woodside was in serious risk of losing its share as it had to fund each phase of development . It perservered , just , and the success of Woodside shows the value of the project and the business accumen of the partners .
The governments contribution to the project was to licence the operation , not negotiate prices . The WA [labour ] government is a strong supporter of the project and a major beneficiary .
Price of the LNG ? Somewhat competetive with coal , but the last gambit from China is that if LNG gets much more costly they will revert to coal for future developments .
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Follow Up By: Flash - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:34
Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:34
Bloody hell!
Don't bring facts to this debate.
Anyway, I would have grave concerns about any deal which "locks in" future prices on ANY hydrocarbon fuel.
It's an incredibly precious resource and will go only one way in price.
Cheers
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Follow Up By: Mr Fawlty - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:01
Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:01
As someone who has bought coal, back in the days when I was a steamship magnate, it used to cost me $80 a ton at the
mine addit, as it were, yet the Japs were buying it landed in Japan for AUD$32/ tonne....
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Follow Up By: Scubaroo - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:57
Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:57
Economies of scale... how many shiploads were the Japanese buying, versus a couple of truckloads? Labour involved in selling by the tonne direct from the
mine versus export-scale loading etc? Sometimes apples ain't apples and you just can't compare.
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Reply By: Member - Willie , Epping .Syd. - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:17
Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:17
Hi Frank ,
Could you tell me how much LPG it takes to make a litre of diesel , how much energy is required in production and what sort of investment would be required by Woodside and it's partners to make such a plant ( not in dollar terms , just small , med, large , huge etc )
If it is as cut and dried as you say , and Woodside is eager to make profits for their shareholders , why then are they still trying to sell it to China at such a low price ?
I don't think it could be quite as clear cut as you make out .
Thanks ,
Willie .
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Follow Up By: Member - Willie , Epping .Syd. - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:18
Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:18
For LPG read LNG
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Follow Up By: Frank_Troopy - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 17:18
Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 17:18
Hi Willie,
From what I've read on the web it takes 140 litres of LNG to make 100 litres of fuel with the remainder being naptha. I don't know for sure, but I gather that the process is not significantly more difficult than that of producing LNG from the raw gas. I don't know that for sure; the impression I get from the stuff I've read is that a modified gas to liquid plant can do it and I think there are three plants in operation now in WA.
There are lots of factors that effect Woodside's decisions, not least of which would be the 38 cents per litre that needs to be paid to the government to sell the product as fuel here.
The thing that started me on this was reading in the Financial Review that the deal was costed by using the OPEC price of crude oil as a benchmark. The price of crude that was used was US$25. This fact alone means that we are getting somewhere around a third of what we should now and this contract is going to continue for 25 years at the same price. I don't know whether you've read about it; Howard has been making a big thing over the last couple of days about how we honourable Australians will stand by the contract. When I looked into it I saw all sorts of opinions that made it sound even worse.
Did Howard and Bush really believe the Iraq war would bring the oil price below $20?
The fact that Howard is so involved in discussing the ongoing arrangement for the deal leads me to think the government had a role in the negotiation of the contract. Deals such as this one just don't happen without our Department of Trade taking a big role.
I'd love to know what the real return to the Australian taxpayer/citizen is for the commonly owned gas reserve. The much quoted 3 cents per litre is possibly the amount the governments are receiving in royalty payments. I'd rather take my share in fuel!
I can't wait to see Four Corners do an analysis.
Sorry I don't know more. I sure know I smell a rat.
Cheers Frank.
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Follow Up By: Member - Willie , Epping .Syd. - Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 20:25
Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 20:25
Hi Frank ,
I was just reading an on article in EnergyReview.net on gas to liquid diesel production and I have attached a quote below . This may be the reason they are not doing it in Australia - a huge investment for a small market .
"GTL plants require massive investment and are energy-hungry to run, but Sasol maintains that high oil prices and environmental concerns make the fuel competitive. The company has said that Oryx GTL will make other companies and gas-rich countries think more seriously about the merits of making diesel from gas"
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Follow Up By: Frank_Troopy - Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 22:00
Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 22:00
Thanks Willie.
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