LNG exports to China

Submitted: Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 00:30
ThreadID: 35381 Views:4075 Replies:14 FollowUps:21
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Hi,
John Howard is in China at the moment crowing about the liquid natural gas deal. Can anyone explain to me how this deal is anything other than a tragedy for Aussies who run motor vehicles? The Northwest Shelf project is producing around 12 million tonnes of liquid gas each year. For the next 25 years we are locked into a deal with China, selling our liquid gas at a fixed price of around 3 cents per litre. That price is really cheap now, just imagine how ridiculous it will be in 25 years.

A gas-to-liquid plant could convert that gas to diesel fuel and supply more than 50% of the distillate we are currently using and it would do so at a price that would be a fraction of what we will be paying for the fuel we distil from imported crude oil. If over time we adopted diesel cars instead of petrol (LNG cannot be converted to petrol), our fuel could be supplied from our own resource rather than from imported crude.

Australia is currently a net energy exporter. The higher the price of fuel, the more money is made by the exporters and the more the government receives in royalties.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a government that acted in the interests of Australians. After all, the gas reserves are a resource that is owned by all Australians. What better way to spend some of the future fund money than on a gas-to-liquid plant to produce diesel fuel?

Sorry to all you Howard supporters but I get so peeved by the deals his government does that always seem to favour overseas interests.

I feel better now I've got that off my chest.

Cheers Frank.
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Reply By: Richard Kovac - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 00:44

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 00:44
Because we (and that's a JH we) Australian's are greedy.

Money.....Money.....Money!!!!!!
AnswerID: 180961

Reply By: Barnesy - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 02:58

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 02:58
Seems like you know more about converting LNG to diesel than i do but i'm sure Johnny had his reasons. Sucking up to someone bigger probably, just like he sucked up last week with removal of biodiesel tax incentives at the request of big oil companies.

He probably made some deal where China gets cheap LNG from us and we get cheap TV's etc from them. No doubt China would be getting a better deal than we are.

Without getting too political, but the price of crude skyrocketed about the same time the Yanks (and us) invaded Iraq. I'm not saying they're connected. It must be a coincidence. Johnny sucked up to Bush then too.

It would be good to have a government that acted on the long term sustainablitiy of Oz, not just the bottom line.

Barnesy
AnswerID: 180964

Reply By: Dave198 - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 06:31

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 06:31
I have just been charged $180 to get 166 litres of gas delivered to my house, and I live a lot closer to the North West Shelf than China.
Never mind, I will keep warm for a while now, there is heaps of steam coming out of my ears.
Dave
AnswerID: 180967

Reply By: age - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 07:07

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 07:07
Frank_Troopy

Any more info on "converting" LNG to diesel ? I am aware of using LNG as a diesel fuel replacement and converting diesel engines to run on it (local council runs its buses on it), but was unaware that it could be converted to "diesel". Perhaps you mean LNG is used as a diesel replacement fuel.

Any info/sources appreciated or am I mis-understanding your post. LNG is derived from Natural Gas by lowering temperature and pressurising and removing certain compounds/water etc and is kept in this liquefied state through storage and recycling and recharging liquid that evapourates.

Cheers
AnswerID: 180968

Follow Up By: Frank_Troopy - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 09:30

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 09:30
Hi Age,
Yes, you're right, the diesel fuel produced is not actually distillate or "diesel". I oversimplified my message; in part due to my limited knowledge of the topic, but also to keep my message a bit less lengthy. Sorry.

What I was referring to is converting the methane in LNG to dimethyl ether. DME needs to be under pressure to remain liquid, so it is more like LPG than distillate. DME remains a liquid at 70 lbs/sq at room temperature; for LNG this figure is around 3000 lbs/sq in. Because of the high pressures or low temperatures needed to keep natural gas a liquid it is commonly used as a compressed gas instead, however for any sort of useable range this requires storage containers that are too large to be used for cars and refilling is a pain.

As I understand it, the modification to vehicles that are necessary to run on DME are no more difficult than for LPG. The high viscosity of DME requires pump modifications.

The point is that our petroleum reserves are running out and our 4WDing interest is going to become unaffordable. Oz is blessed with a resource and there are affordable technological solutions that can allow this to be used for our benefit. Instead we are selling it off for a dubious benefit.

There is a load of information on the web about DME.
eg. http://www.mhi.co.jp/tech/pdf/e406/e406348.pdf

Cheers Frank.
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Follow Up By: ellmcg - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:33

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:33
Yes, you can convert natural gas (methane) into synthetic diesel, which can be run with little or no vehicle modification. Its much cleaner than the stuff that comes out of a distillation plant (no sulfur). Try looking up 'Fischer-Tropsch' on the web.

The German army were doing it during the war to keep their vehicles going, it just hasn't been economic since then. Until recently perhaps... There was talk of it being done on the north-west shelf, but the LNG option must have been more economic at the time the decision was made.

You've also got to keep in mind that it would have been a company, not the government, deciding which option would suit them best.
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Follow Up By: Mr Fawlty - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:03

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:03
NSW govt busses have tried it and the conversion that is needed is a distributor and spark plugs...Results are claimed to be unimpressive....
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Follow Up By: ellmcg - Friday, Jun 30, 2006 at 10:00

Friday, Jun 30, 2006 at 10:00
I think you'll find that the NSW govt were trially straight methane in their buses. Converting the methane to synthetic diesel takes a lot more processing equipment than the government would have been willing to pay for on their own.
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Reply By: andoland - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 07:33

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 07:33
"A gas-to-liquid plant could convert that gas to diesel fuel and supply more than 50% of the distillate we are currently using and it would do so at a price that would be a fraction of what we will be paying for the fuel we distil from imported crude oil."

Why would any company want to do this when they could sell it on the open market for many more times the price?
AnswerID: 180969

Reply By: Sand Man (SA) - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 08:43

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 08:43
Hey, forget China. There is a long term deal to supply SYDNEY with cheap gas from the Cooper Basin, while South Australians pay a premium price....So There!
Bill


I'm diagonally parked in a parallel Universe!

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AnswerID: 180990

Reply By: Scubaroo - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 09:38

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 09:38
Where does the 3c/L figure come from? I'm interested knowing if that is the actual price, or if it's just the "rumoured" price. There's been an urban myth around for years that LPG is sold overseas at 4c/L that has been debunked in the past.
AnswerID: 181003

Follow Up By: Frank_Troopy - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:03

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:03
Hi Scubaroo,

I just saw that price given in some web sites so it well may be incorrect. I haven't seen enough information about the deal to be able to work out just what the actual price is.

It's like the $10 per barrel figure quoted that we sell Bass Strait crude for. Who knows? Do we really buy oil for $70 a barrel and sell our own in the same quantity for $10 per barrel?

John Howard's web site says that we are exporting 3 billion tonnes per year for 25 years for a total of between 20 and 25 billion dollars. That's a maximum of 1 billion dollars per year.

The density of LNG is about half that of water, so a tonne would be 2000 litres. (water is 1 kg/litre so LNG is 2 l/kg) So in one year we are selling 6000000000000 litres for 100000000000 cents. According to me that is only 0.0167 of a cent per litre and this doesn't include the cost of transport and so on. So my rough calculation says the 4 cents per litre quoted on the web is many times what my dumb arsed calculation says based on the figures on John Howards web site.

OK, I must have done something wrong. Anyone care to show me my mistake?

Cheers Frank.

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Follow Up By: Frank_Troopy - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:05

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:05
Oops. I found it myself. The amount is 3 million tonnes, not billion, so the price according to my rough calculation is actually around 16.7 cents per litre.
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Follow Up By: Scubaroo - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:16

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:16
Millions of tonnes, not billions of tonnes.

One litre of LNG weighs 300 grams.

I just did similar calculations - but the figures I saw were 3.3 million tonnes per year for 25 years at $25 billion.

3.3 million tonnes is 11 billion litres a year, which for 25 years at $25 billion works out to be about 9c/L.... is that right?
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Follow Up By: Scubaroo - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:25

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 12:25
Hmmm, further searching shows LNG appears to have different densities depending on the source - anything from 0.3 to 0.5kg/L depending on composition, temperature, and pressure, so a c/L calculation is a bt meaningless without knowing what the stuff we're shipping is. Price per kg works out to be 30.3c/kg of LNG, and a kg appears to be anything from 3.3 to 2L.

Commonly quoted figure is around 0.41kg/L, so a ballpark figure is 12.4c/L.
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Reply By: sastra - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 10:21

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 10:21
Well done Johnny,

Another great export initiative from our great state of Western Australia.
Achieved totally without Liberals' new Industrial Relations laws.
Goodbye Liberal Govt. come next elections and tough titties Peter Costello.

Respect yourselves,
Sastra
AnswerID: 181007

Follow Up By: cuffs - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:46

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:46
Go Johnny Go!!!!!!!!
Don't you just love democracy???????
The Senate is all yours Mr. Howard, the people said so..........
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Follow Up By: Truckster (Vic) - Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 22:22

Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 22:22
While howards and the libs are as useless as dogs balls on a mozzie, what are the options? there just arent any - and Howard knows that. why do you think he doesnt give a chit anymore about what people think?
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Reply By: Member - Rotord - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:26

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:26
Glad to see that after much clacking of the abacus counters we were getting to a more mature grasp of the economics of the China deal . Don't know why you bothered , all you had to do was a simple analysis of Woodside .

You remember Woodside . They were the small Aussie company who had a share in the North West Shelf gas discoveries . They are now a giant Aussie company thanks mainly to the export of LNG . Woodside was in serious risk of losing its share as it had to fund each phase of development . It perservered , just , and the success of Woodside shows the value of the project and the business accumen of the partners .

The governments contribution to the project was to licence the operation , not negotiate prices . The WA [labour ] government is a strong supporter of the project and a major beneficiary .

Price of the LNG ? Somewhat competetive with coal , but the last gambit from China is that if LNG gets much more costly they will revert to coal for future developments .
AnswerID: 181022

Follow Up By: Flash - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:34

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 13:34
Bloody hell!
Don't bring facts to this debate.
Anyway, I would have grave concerns about any deal which "locks in" future prices on ANY hydrocarbon fuel.
It's an incredibly precious resource and will go only one way in price.
Cheers
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Follow Up By: Mr Fawlty - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:01

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:01
As someone who has bought coal, back in the days when I was a steamship magnate, it used to cost me $80 a ton at the mine addit, as it were, yet the Japs were buying it landed in Japan for AUD$32/ tonne....
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Follow Up By: Scubaroo - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:57

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:57
Economies of scale... how many shiploads were the Japanese buying, versus a couple of truckloads? Labour involved in selling by the tonne direct from the mine versus export-scale loading etc? Sometimes apples ain't apples and you just can't compare.
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Reply By: Mr Fawlty - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:11

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:11
I would have to do some further research but I'm almost certain an Aussie has a patent on a compression ignition engine that runs on coal pulverised to a powder finer than talc that has actually got to be suspended in a fluid to prevent spontaneous combustion...It's very energy concentrated fuel, coal that is. Has such a pleasant aroma too... Bring back the Steam era!
AnswerID: 181030

Follow Up By: Mr Fawlty - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:20

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 14:20
Look here:
www.liquidcoal.com
and some discussion:
Site Link
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Follow Up By: Member - Ed. C.- Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 15:44

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 15:44
"Diesel, Rudolf..
Although best known for his invention of the pressure-ignited heat engine that bears his name, Rudolf Diesel was an eminent thermal engineer, a connoisseur of the arts, a linguist, and a social theorist." (and much more)...

"In 1892-93 Diesel took out patents on an engine to operate on the cycle just described. Either powdered coal or liquid petroleum would be used as fuel. Powdered coal was included because of it's ready availability as a waste material of the Saar coal mines. Diesed planned to use compressed air to introduce the coal dust into the engine cylinder but found it difficult to control the rate of injection so that the maximum pressure in the cylinder after ignition would not exceed a safe limit. After the experimental engine was wrecked by an explosion in the cylinder, Diesel gave up the idea of using coal dust and devoted his efforts to the use of liquid petroleum. He continued, however, to use compressed air to introduce the liquid petroleum into the cylinder."

The above are brief extracts from the Encyclopaedia Britannica (Macropaedia, Vol.5, 1975 edition)...

As you can see, the idea of using coal dust to fuel a "compression ignition" engine is nothing new...
Confucius say.....
"He who lie underneath automobile with tool in hand,
....Not necessarily mechanic!!"

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FollowupID: 437324

Follow Up By: Richard Kovac - Saturday, Jul 01, 2006 at 02:07

Saturday, Jul 01, 2006 at 02:07
Mr Fawlty
Did you read them?
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Follow Up By: Mr Fawlty - Saturday, Jul 01, 2006 at 15:07

Saturday, Jul 01, 2006 at 15:07
Yes...did I miss something that I should have noted? Or am I being subtley accused of throwing red herrings into the debate - which I would admit to doing as it sorts the men & women from the X dressers.
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Reply By: Member - Willie , Epping .Syd. - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:17

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:17
Hi Frank ,

Could you tell me how much LPG it takes to make a litre of diesel , how much energy is required in production and what sort of investment would be required by Woodside and it's partners to make such a plant ( not in dollar terms , just small , med, large , huge etc )

If it is as cut and dried as you say , and Woodside is eager to make profits for their shareholders , why then are they still trying to sell it to China at such a low price ?

I don't think it could be quite as clear cut as you make out .

Thanks ,

Willie .
AnswerID: 181057

Follow Up By: Member - Willie , Epping .Syd. - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:18

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:18
For LPG read LNG
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Follow Up By: Frank_Troopy - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 17:18

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 17:18
Hi Willie,
From what I've read on the web it takes 140 litres of LNG to make 100 litres of fuel with the remainder being naptha. I don't know for sure, but I gather that the process is not significantly more difficult than that of producing LNG from the raw gas. I don't know that for sure; the impression I get from the stuff I've read is that a modified gas to liquid plant can do it and I think there are three plants in operation now in WA.

There are lots of factors that effect Woodside's decisions, not least of which would be the 38 cents per litre that needs to be paid to the government to sell the product as fuel here.

The thing that started me on this was reading in the Financial Review that the deal was costed by using the OPEC price of crude oil as a benchmark. The price of crude that was used was US$25. This fact alone means that we are getting somewhere around a third of what we should now and this contract is going to continue for 25 years at the same price. I don't know whether you've read about it; Howard has been making a big thing over the last couple of days about how we honourable Australians will stand by the contract. When I looked into it I saw all sorts of opinions that made it sound even worse.

Did Howard and Bush really believe the Iraq war would bring the oil price below $20?

The fact that Howard is so involved in discussing the ongoing arrangement for the deal leads me to think the government had a role in the negotiation of the contract. Deals such as this one just don't happen without our Department of Trade taking a big role.

I'd love to know what the real return to the Australian taxpayer/citizen is for the commonly owned gas reserve. The much quoted 3 cents per litre is possibly the amount the governments are receiving in royalty payments. I'd rather take my share in fuel!

I can't wait to see Four Corners do an analysis.

Sorry I don't know more. I sure know I smell a rat.

Cheers Frank.

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Follow Up By: Member - Willie , Epping .Syd. - Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 20:25

Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 20:25
Hi Frank ,
I was just reading an on article in EnergyReview.net on gas to liquid diesel production and I have attached a quote below . This may be the reason they are not doing it in Australia - a huge investment for a small market .

"GTL plants require massive investment and are energy-hungry to run, but Sasol maintains that high oil prices and environmental concerns make the fuel competitive. The company has said that Oryx GTL will make other companies and gas-rich countries think more seriously about the merits of making diesel from gas"
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Follow Up By: Frank_Troopy - Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 22:00

Thursday, Jul 06, 2006 at 22:00
Thanks Willie.
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Reply By: Member - Peter R (QLD) - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:57

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 16:57
Interesting article link which covers initial contract negotiated in 2002.

Pedro

AnswerID: 181062

Reply By: chump_boy - Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 18:34

Thursday, Jun 29, 2006 at 18:34
It's all good in my book - my company has the contract to transport the gas from Australia to China......

lol

Chump
AnswerID: 181079

Reply By: old mate - Saturday, Jul 01, 2006 at 01:49

Saturday, Jul 01, 2006 at 01:49
GET A LIFE YOU bleep S!!!
AnswerID: 181321

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