catastrophic Bushfire Warning in Northern S.A.

Submitted: Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 20:24
ThreadID: 73817 Views:3794 Replies:9 FollowUps:23
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Hope we haven't got any friends up that way
Bushfire Warning

Apparently everyone has to evacuate before 10 am tomorrow ..

Some DH lit it as well !!

Rgds

Mandrake
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Reply By: Willem - Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 20:59

Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 20:59
Hmmmm....the same weather as last week but no warnings then. Not even a Total Fire Ban for the North West Pastoral or Flinders.

Population density very sparse in said areas. Vegetation very sparse too. Tufts of dry grass and some low scrub. Mayby further north like at Marla where there is a fair amount of Mulga a fire could rage. But what would lie in the path of such a fire, should it occur?

Bit of scaremongering if you ask me. Hypotheticals may be? It was on local Adelaide ABC Talkback radio this morning. Someone had to have the first catastrophic warning!

Firebugs are mainly concentrated arounf populated areas
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Follow Up By: Rick (S.A.) - Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 21:56

Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 21:56
Agreed in full, but the authorities nation wide are on a hiding to nothing in the aftermath of the Vic Royal Bushfires Commission if they don't issue such a warning.


C ya Willie - still have not yet called in for that cuppa, I know!
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Follow Up By: Member - Mike DID - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:08

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:08
The same temperature does not mean the same bush fire danger - wind speed makes a huge difference.
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Follow Up By: Willem - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:33

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:33
Yes, O Learned One
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Follow Up By: signman - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 09:47

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 09:47
Mike
The F.D.I. is not ONLY based on temperature.
Yes, wind speed/direction does have an influence- but humidity (or lack of) and fuel load- along with other parameters are all used to predict the F.D.I.
In my RFS days, 50 was considered HIGH fire danger. Apparently, in some SA areas at the moment the Indicator is 100 and above !!

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Follow Up By: Member - Mike DID - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 09:51

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 09:51
I'm well aware of ALL the factors that affect Fire Danger Index.

In the 80's I developed the first computerised FDI calculations which automatically calculated the FDI for Fire Control Centres.
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Follow Up By: signman - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:51

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:51
Hiya Mike,
You must be about the 10th person that developed the first computerised FDI.
Here in NSW anyway !!

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Follow Up By: Member - Mike DID - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:56

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:56
No, I was well and truly the first and for many years the only supplier to RFS and NPWS of weather stations which calculated FDI for Forest and Grass, in real time based on actual weather and saved data.
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Follow Up By: Member - MUZBRY(Vic) - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 12:39

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 12:39
Gday Willem
Sounds like you and Judith might need a bed for a few days to get out of the heat.
Muzbry
Muzbry
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Reply By: RJ5023 - Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 21:27

Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 21:27
Isn't this a bit inaccurate?

The only deliberately lit fire is in Craigmore (Northen suburb of Adelaide). The Catastrophic Warning is for the northern regions of SA in case a fire does start - from whatever cause. No mention of any fires in the region right now.

Hope it stays that way.

Cheers,
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Follow Up By: Member - Mike DID - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:06

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:06
This is what the warning actually says -

"The Country Fire Service (CFS) says any fires that do break out today will be uncontrollable and there would be a very high likelihood that people in their path will die.

But with a big area declared to be at catastrophic risk, there is some confusion over what the rating actually means - especially for those in remote areas.

CFS deputy chief officer Andrew Lawson says leaving is the best option for people in code red areas.

"Any fires that start in those two areas have the potential to be catastrophic, to develop very, very quickly, be fast moving, spotting well ahead of the main fire front and will be very, very dangerous fires," he said.

"So that's the message effectively, that the safest option for people if they're not well prepared is to go to a safer place."
"
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Reply By: Crackles - Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 21:32

Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 21:32
While preparing for severe fire events is important, at some point people will get tired of packing everything up, stopping work, closing business's & travelling to somewhere 'safe'. If there are no fires on the day of the catastrophic warning people will over time become complacent & even curse the authorities for the loss of revenue.
Craig.............
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Reply By: snapper49 - Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 22:27

Tuesday, Nov 17, 2009 at 22:27
Yep no fires here yet
Have to work tomorrow anyways so im not evacuating
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Reply By: Member - Mike DID - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:03

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:03
North western NSW will have Catastrophic conditions in a couple of days.
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Reply By: DIO - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:57

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 08:57
So here we go again - more mis-information. People DO NOT have to evacuate.

CFS deputy chief officer Andrew Lawson says leaving is the best option for people in code red areas.

"Any fires that start in those two areas have the potential to be catastrophic, to develop very, very quickly, be fast moving, spotting well ahead of the main fire front and will be very, very dangerous fires," he said.

"So that's the message effectively, that the safest option for people if they're not well prepared is to go to a safer place."

"They need to be considering their bushfire survival plan and have in their bushfire survival plan where they're choosing to go, which is their safer place, how to get there and what triggers they'll use to put that survival plan in action," he said.

So if you are going to promulgate news items - please get it/them right. To do otherwise could cause many people to panic or make poor decisions.
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Follow Up By: Member - Lia H (SA) - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 09:57

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 09:57
Agreed, but to be fair to Steve, it is ALLOVER the radio, local TV and everywhere else here for the last 48 hrs.

Being that our local radio and TV seem to love a good story, I've heard much worse being broadcast yesterday.

It is scary for people, and irresponsible of the media to do that. It should always be, as you say, "It is really likely for the situation to get nasty if any fires DO break out in this weather, be aware, be organised, leave if the cirucmstances get to that".

Let's just hope that everyone is alert and aware today, and no firebugs try to cause any mischief. Fingers crossed for everyone to stay safe. :)
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Reply By: Member - Mike DID - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:00

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:00
Authorities have three options -

1. Decide what the danger will be and evacuate them by force - has happened in some instances.

2. Warn people what conditions are predicted and let them decide (what happened the day before the Victorian disaster)

3. Don't tell them how bad it's going to be - they might panic (what happened before 500 house were destroyed in Canberra in one day - read the Coroners Report).

What do you think is the best option.
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Follow Up By: Robin Miller - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:09

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:09
No 2 Mike

The problem was that did not properly happen before Vic fires.

If fact , with car already packed, the only reason we were not inside the fires was my last minute check of weather radar which show thunderstorms/rain in the area , which later proved to be smoke etc which confused the radar !
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Follow Up By: Member - Mike DID - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:17

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:17
It took quite a while for the news to come out of just how bad the day had been - initial reports were of a few deaths and houses lost.

I had an inkling of how bad it was likely to be when I looked at the weather radar that afternoon and saw a huge smoke cloud reaching out over the ocean !
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Follow Up By: Nargun51 - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 11:17

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 11:17
To evacuate the Dandenong’s on the best case scenario (no flames, no smoke, no accidents, and no panic) is estimated by emergency services to take in excess of 3 hours.

Strong Nor’ westerly on hot late January day and the fire starts at the North West base of the mountain.

How long would it take for the fire to reach the TV towers and start burning down the other side?

How many people can evacuate in that period? How many can you forcefully evacuate?

We were warned the day before Black Saturday. People didn’t listen or plan accordingly (I know I didn’t plan according to a worst case scenario).

The frustrating thing about that day is that communications broke down. Our ability to make educated decisions about or actions also went out the window.

My fire plan of this time last year no longer exists
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Follow Up By: 2000 Red Rodeo - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 19:48

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 19:48
Nargun51

The deaths in VIC last year were caused by

1) The Boy who cried wolf syndrome. We had that many false alarms that people stopped listening to warnings. I know I did!

2) Gov't neglect and failure to maintain a sufficient prescribed burning program. If private land was maintained like public land they would be fined.

To put it simply the smell of smoke in Spring is reassuring, the smell of smoke in summer is something to worry about. Even this year after the deadly fires in Feb there still has been a lack of prescribed burns. It appears Green votes are more iimportant than peoples lives.



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Reply By: Nargun51 - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:23

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:23
At work on the day before Black Saturday (city office) a work colleague made some dismissive comments about the warnings issued, especially in regards to the Premier. I replied that it was OK for him, as he didn’t live in a fire prone area. He didn’t raise the issue again on the Monday

However, listening to the comments and opinions discussed at this time, I was left with the impression of how disconnected with the land that people had become, and that bushfire safety should become part of education curriculum and societal ‘lore’; much the same as water safety.

A “catastrophic’ fire day is simply a warning to the community of a simple concept. A fire on these days has the risk of getting out of control and no amount of intervention will get it back under control in the short term and, therefore, there are no guarantees of protection of property, and more importantly, life.

Accordingly, on ‘catastrophic’ fire days the guaranteed safest place from fires is to be nowhere near fire danger areas. Simple!

Fire risk is declared by the fire services in regards to a professional determination based on a number of factors including temperature, humidity, wind speed, fuel load, and the dryness of the fuel load. A dead calm 45 degrees day after a week of rain has a lower fire danger than a 30 degree day with 60 kph winds after 3 months of drought

You make your determination on whether to stay or go on the basis of the best information provided. Your decision

This forum is composed of people who have a love affair with the bush. One would hope that these people had absorbed a bit of an understanding of the nature of the land and plan and act accordingly

The replies in regards to this post seem to indicate that the Fire Services and the Government are fighting a losing battle in respect to community education.
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Follow Up By: Willem - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:59

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 10:59
Whilst I agree with most of what you have said the original poster has copied and pasted a news item which in itself has an erroneous content.

Bushfires rage through out the country all of the time. In the highly populated areas they are of real danger to the public and a fire plan must be in place for each and every property

North West Pastoral and Flinders Ranges areas covers a huge isolated section of this state.......probably the size of the whole of Victoria.....and where the population is very sparse. To make a statement that people should flee evacuate their properties just because of perceived Catastrophic conditions may prevail for the day, is a pure nonsense.

As mentioned time and time again on this forum...... COMMON SENSE seems to be dead!

The fire authorities, removed by up a 1000 kilometres from the scene, make statements which the Media pick up and run with and which the masses seems to ingest as the whole truth!!!!!!
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Follow Up By: Karen & Geoff - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 11:24

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 11:24
As mentioned time and time again on this forum...... COMMON SENSE seems to be dead!

Willem, this comment you made is so right. So many people sit there and listen to the radio and "wait" to be told to leave by the voice on the radio. Use your own common sense and if you know you cannot protect your property, leave before the fire gets even near your house. I dont know why people leave it to the last minute. Our zone is already getting prepared for our 2 really bad days we are expecting tomorrow and Friday (we are ready everyday). I have been called this morning and I will be sitting behind a microphone from 10am till 7 pm tomorrow and Friday, waiting to dispatch tankers and crews. Something even looks like burning and I will have tankers and crews there! I will have 2666 volunteer fire fighters tomorrow, really hoping not to have to hear my voice on the PMR, cause if they do, they know we have trouble.

Lets hope the whole country gets through the next couple of days, but if we don't common sense can save so many lives.

Karen
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Follow Up By: Wilk0 - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 13:51

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 13:51
Hi Karen & Geoff,

It should be called uncommon sense lol.


Cheers Wilko
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Follow Up By: Member - Neville & Sally C (VI - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 16:44

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 16:44
Hi,We live in the Otway Ranges Vic. We have work here, otherwise we wouldn't.We were close to the Ash Wednesday fires but not near Black Saturday area. I think that in some cases the media should be banned from having anything to do with fire reporting. For many reasons ,What a shamozzle the A.B.C. is each fire season. We could write a whole roll of toilet paper of mistakes they make. I've contacted them(the radio station) on a few occasions & complained. Also in all of these enquiries they have, you never hear of any tougher penalties for firebugs! A bigger deterrant might help. Communications between Authorities isn't what it should be either. We can guarentee fires in The Otways this year cause they've been well advertised by the C.F.A.! The Premier doesn't appear to understand . We will be staying, but our plan to listen to the A.B.C. no longer applies. We can't get local radio . We keep our eyes & nose on full alert on bad days & are as prepared as is possible for us to be.
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Follow Up By: Who was that again? (Vic) - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 23:09

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 23:09
There are silly prescriptions to avoid danger areas. So, does one go to town where you can defend against fire? Yes, well which part of town? Remembering that fires burnt into Bendigo last February, within 1.5kms of the post office.

Premier Brumby is covering his butt in Victoria. Just been talking with a shire councillor who says that huge pressure is being applied to the council, so the state government won't be seen as responsible. None of the resources are being supplied but all the costs shifted to the council. The council are attempting what is almost impossible as the government is avoiding it's responsibility. Towns that have little ability to develop their 'safer places' by the danger period, especially because of environmental policy. No fuel reduction policies have been active.
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Follow Up By: Member - Neville & Sally C (VI - Thursday, Nov 19, 2009 at 11:59

Thursday, Nov 19, 2009 at 11:59
No fuel reduction has been done in our area either.They've been notifying of a particular burn off for the past 6yrs. it still hasn't been done!
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Follow Up By: Who was that again? (Vic) - Thursday, Nov 19, 2009 at 16:47

Thursday, Nov 19, 2009 at 16:47
Neville and Sally, the targets were adjusted downwards to a figure of, from memory, 140,000 hectares and the All Party state government committee agreed to that target, meaning the Labor government ultimately agreed when the report was tabled.

The target has never been met since the report was tabled and indeed the escalation in employees that would have been needed to meet that target has not taken place. The Premier blames weather conditions
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Follow Up By: Member - Neville & Sally C (VI - Friday, Nov 20, 2009 at 17:43

Friday, Nov 20, 2009 at 17:43
Thanks for that reply John, We'd like to have a talk to the Premier one day! The people responsible for fuel reduction in our area aren't over worked.I reckon that they should do more burn offs in Autumn. Last year we wanted to do a small burnoff. It was the start of winter. Rain had fallen & a guaranteed 2" on the way. No, we weren't allowed to do it, we weren't asking them to do it, it was on our place. Why start burnoffs in early summer when you aren't going to have the winter to properly extinguish any smouldering logs etc.
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Reply By: snapper49 - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 19:11

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 19:11
Well I survived LOl
same alert for tomorrow-Thursday
forecast 45-47 c
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Follow Up By: Richard Kovac - Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 22:16

Wednesday, Nov 18, 2009 at 22:16
ureal hey, it raining in Perth and cold.??????
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