Wednesday, Feb 02, 2011 at 16:40
The strong winds they are predicting must be constrained to a 30km front? Lets look at 3PM Readings
Cairns 512k Radar
Using the above we can measure a few things.
1) The cyclone is currently in the middle of Flinders and Homes Reef
2) Those reefs are 130k apart
3) The eye measures roughly at 30k wide
3) The eye is roughly 50k North of Flinders Reef
So logic tells me to look at wind speeds &
1) Flinders strongest gust to date is 90 Knots
2) Holmes Reef to date is 67 Knots
Where the eye is one could say Flinders has reached maybe its maximum and Holmes may yet to get its maximum.
So if it is as predicted, if you get 50 k closer to the eye the winds will reach 250k + ????
If all the above is correct, is the strength of this cyclone correct?
I am clutching at straws here, but logically it seems that it may not be as strong as they are saying - Hope I do not have to eat my words :-)
Cheers Tony
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