Monday, May 30, 2011 at 14:49
Hi Fisho
I’m not one to take it personally, but I put together some further thoughts on the matter... and there is plenty informative and publically available information regarding the industry, the players, pricing, and importantly fuel security.
And it is important to readily identify the ‘players’ and the role they play in the fuel chain cycle. For example, all too frequently in Australia,
Caltex is referred to as an ‘oil’ company. It isn’t,
Caltex is a refiner, purchasing crude oil on the world market and converting it into petroleum products. They do not explore or produce oil at all. Some of the oil companies have integrated oil exploration and refining business’s, but these are run very independently of each other.
A frequently asked question is why are we linked to the Singapore Prices via the Import Price Parity (IPP) arrangement, especially given our abundance of both oil and gas. On face value it may seem a reasonable proposition, but the further you delve into the issues surrounding this notion you quickly realise it is far more complex.
The refineries in Australia are very old when compared to the new, high capacity refineries being built in Asia.
Security of supply is very important to the whole discussion, could you imagine a situation where Australia was reliant entirely on imported petroleum products? It is a National Security issue, let’s face it our armed forces are reliant on it first and foremost to do their job, industry needs it to be able to function, and eventually it works its way down the chain. But imagine being told that limited fuel was available for private consumption as it is directed towards more important users.
Being entirely reliant on imported petroleum product exposes Australia to risks that are not acceptable. Whilst we have relatively peaceful northern neighbours, who is to say that will always be the case and that Australia will never be threatened by another country? Imagine that all that you would need to do is to stop petroleum products reaching our shores to inhibit our ability to defend ourselves. And whilst it might sound conspiratory, Federal Governments in Australia, regardless of persuasion will be very cognisant of these issues. The cry that successive governments play to the tune of the refiners may
well be true, but with good reason...
So having refining capacity available in Australia is critical to ensure that we can guarantee supply in times of need. And this is how IPP plays a role. Presently the arrangement is working in favour of the domestic refiners to the extent that it costs more to ship the refined product to Australia than it does to refine it here. And that is the incentive for refiners to continue their Australian operations, because let’s face it, if you could import the finished product for less than you could refine it here, why would you do it? The IPP guarantees the price they can sell fuel at is reflective of the cost to import similar.
It is also important to note that Governments haven’t closed refineries in Australia, companies have made a commercial decision to do so.
Mobil closed Port Stanvac because it was uneconomical to continue and Shell recently announced it was closing the Clyde refinery in
Sydney for the same reason. So there is a history already that points towards these companies leaving when it no longer suits.
But increasingly, the mega-refineries in South-East Asia, many whose refining capacity far outstrips the total capacity in Australia, will put downward pressure on refining margins. If Australian refineries become unprofitable we run the risk they will close. And the capital cost of a new refinery being built in Australia to take advantage of efficiency gains ensures it won’t happen.
In the future I envisage the Government of the day will need to provide incentives by way of subsidies or tax concessions for refineries to remain viable and open for business, and we all know who that will cost – the Australian tax payer, but that is the cost of ensuring continuity of supply, and the ability to fuel your vehicle, when you want to.
Cheers, The Landy
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